2025-12-26 09:10:13

#美联储回购协议计划 The Fed's "Double Insurance": From Liquidity Fears to a Liquidity Defense Line

Trump's tariff policies triggered fluctuations in U.S. Treasuries, and the New York Fed has been on high alert—closely monitoring the overnight repurchase agreement (repo) rate, fearing a replay of the 2019 "cash crunch." This time, unlike before, the Federal Reserve shifted from a passive response to an active approach, using the "ample reserve framework" to regulate interest rate fluctuations and liquidity supply.

What exactly is a repurchase agreement? Simply put, banks use government bonds as collateral to borrow short-term cash from the Fed, with the difference in interest being the profit. No new money is printed; it's purely precise liquidity management.

This year's approach has changed. Repos are no longer "emergency measures" but have become a routine "insurance product." The Fed directly canceled the $500 billion daily limit, opening a "safety valve" for a high-interest-rate environment. At the same time, it employs a three-pronged strategy: the reserve balance rate, overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), and standing repurchase agreements, tightly locking the federal funds rate within its target range.

The 2025 policy mix is formidable: slowing down balance sheet reduction, upgrading repo mechanisms, and restarting Treasury purchases. These operations lower short-term interest rates and influence traditional asset trends; the crypto market is more sensitive—when liquidity is injected, funding tightness eases, and risk appetite immediately rebounds.

Currently, reserve balances are approaching the critical level seen in 2019, and upward pressure on interest rates is increasing. However, the Fed is well-prepared, and the "cash crunch" risk appears manageable at present.

Looking ahead, proactive regulation is expected to become the new normal. Investors need to learn to distinguish between "liquidity stabilization" and "genuine monetary easing"; crypto players can use the spread between SOFR and ON RRP rates as a barometer of liquidity tightness.

Before the end of the year, the NY Fed's $6.8 billion Treasury purchase will be gradually implemented, further tightening the link between traditional markets and crypto markets. The Fed's liquidity tools are no longer passive responses but are part of a sophisticated system actively shaping the market ecosystem.

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StablecoinEnjoyer

· 3h ago

The Fed's series of measures can indeed ease short-term liquidity temporarily, but in the long run, they are still covering up structural contradictions. Speaking of the normalization of repurchase agreements, essentially it's just giving the market a reassurance boost; the shadow of the 2019 liquidity crunch is still there. The spread between SOFR and ONRRP is the real barometer; many people haven't paid attention to this detail. However, the crypto market's reaction to liquidity is indeed sensitive—funds loosen up and prices rise, and this point is undeniable.

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bridgeOops

· 4h ago

To be honest, the 2019 liquidity crunch was really frightening. This time, the Federal Reserve has learned its lesson. Real proactive regulation, not just passive firefighting anymore, gotta admit. The crypto market follows the trend; when liquidity loosens, risk appetite soars. This logic makes sense.

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NewDAOdreamer

· 4h ago

Oops, the Federal Reserve is playing chess again. This time, it's really about protecting the market from collapsing. Liquidity is invisible and intangible, but once tension rises, the price of coins will be the first to react. Wait, is the spread between SOFR and ONRRP a barometer of the weather? I need to remember this trick; it's better than guessing blindly. The lesson from 2019 was indeed profound, so this time they directly canceled the daily limit, which is outrageous. Speaking of which, does the crypto circle buy into this? When funds loosen, coins rise. This pattern is quite rigid, but it seems to be quite accurate... The Federal Reserve is now engaging in precise regulation; we just follow the data. Honestly, rather than listening to analysis, it's better to look at ONRRP and SOFR ourselves; the data speaks for itself. In my opinion, preemptive regulation is just a disguised form of liquidity injection. As long as liquidity is sufficient, there’s a chance for coins.

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Rugman_Walking

· 4h ago

This repurchase scheme sounds like the Federal Reserve is giving the market a confidence boost; to put it nicely, it's a defensive move, and to put it bluntly, they're panicking. The spread between SOFR and ONRRP must be closely watched; this is the key to judging true easing or false easing. Liquidity loosening always leads to activity in the crypto space; this rule will never change. Speaking of the $6.8 billion Treasury bond purchase, it sounds quite large, but compared to the cancellation of the $500 billion daily limit, it feels more like a band-aid than a cure. Crypto players really need to develop a keen eye and not be fooled by the guise of "liquidity stabilization." The Federal Reserve is now the key player, and the market has to dance to their rhythm.

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PonziDetector

· 4h ago

Once again, the Federal Reserve is playing tricks. This time they directly canceled the daily limit, feeling like they're paving the way for bigger moves later on. The Federal Reserve has long seen through this; instead of passively firefighting, it's better to proactively set safety valves—very clever. When liquidity loosens, the crypto market is the first to cheer. This pattern has never changed. The key still lies in those 6.8 billion Treasury bonds. If they are implemented before the end of the year, the market will have something to watch. In simple terms, it's an upgraded version of the art of printing money. Maintaining liquidity sounds good, but in reality, it's still about managing existing assets. The SOFR spread trick is quite clever. At last, there's a reliable standard for judgment. The 2025 combo punch, huh? I just wonder how long the Federal Reserve can sustain without "maintaining stability."

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AirdropHustler

· 4h ago

Double insurance sounds mysterious, but it's really just playing with liquidity tricks. The crypto market is the most敏感. Basically, it's the Federal Reserve playing chess, and we just watch. The spread between SOFR and ONRRP... remember this, it can indeed reveal clues. The shadow of the 2019 liquidity crunch is still there, but this time they've been more thorough. The key is that the 500 billion limit has been canceled; it feels like the moves are getting bigger.

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GameFiCritic

· 5h ago

In plain terms, this is the Federal Reserve playing the "insurance product"—making emergency measures a normal state, and the liquidity game is becoming more sophisticated. The key is the spread between SOFR and ONRRP, which is a more reliable indicator of whether the easing is genuine or fake, much more dependable than reading news releases.

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