The year-end blockbuster is here. At 4:00 PM today, the largest options expiration in cryptocurrency history — with a nominal value of 23 billion USD — is about to take place. How exaggerated is this scale? Just look back.

The delivery rhythm over the past three months has been quite interesting: the September 18 billion USD expiration was settled on Friday, the weekend was dull, and then there was a violent surge early Monday, jumping from 108k to 126k. The October 13 billion USD expiration repeated the old script: settlement on Friday, shorting over the weekend, and a sharp drop early Monday, with 110k instantly falling to 100k. November’s 13 billion USD expiration followed the same pattern, dropping from 91k to 84k.

Can this 23 billion USD break the curse? Probably not. After tomorrow’s settlement, it’s likely to be a weekend of sideways trading again. When everyone returns from the holiday, Monday (the 29th) will be the real test. At that time, the critical lines of life and death are 85k and 90k — whoever truly breaks through will be the indicator of bullish or bearish sentiment. The key also depends on the performance of $BTC and $ETH.