#美联储回购协议计划 Q4 The delivery cycle has come to an end.

Looking at the market structure changes is quite clear—the options positions are rapidly accumulating, and the entire market is becoming increasingly deeply bound to derivatives and leverage funds. The volatility space is actually being continuously compressed. To be blunt: the golden age for retail investors to buy spot at low prices is probably only this bear market opportunity left. In the future, spot trading will no longer be the main battlefield for retail investors.

**How to view the current market**

BTC is once again challenging the daily MA30 level (around 89,500). This level is very critical:

If it holds steady, aim to break through the 100,000 mark;
If it cannot hold, a second retest is almost unavoidable.

The key is whether it can break out of the weak-to-strong pattern. We need to wait for a clear unilateral breakout; after the breakout, it’s just a shift from weak to slightly strong. From a structural perspective, it’s better to first fall back to the 3600–3700 range before turning to short, as the risk-reward ratio will be more comfortable.

**Some thoughts on bull and bear markets**

Recently, everyone is shouting about a bear market, with reasons ranging from: rate cuts not boosting prices, balance sheet reduction still not lifting markets, and many long-term positives turning into bearish signals. But to be honest, bull and bear markets are just cyclical games; they don’t help much with short-term trading.

Short-term traders focus on 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts, where countless opportunities can be carved out in a single day;
Long-term investors are truly concerned about the bull-bear switch, which might take 1–3 years to realize, but once it does, the returns can be explosive.

Different trading frameworks lead to completely opposite conclusions. Debating bull or bear in short cycles is, in essence, a waste of energy.