#代币化趋势 Seeing the SEC's series of actions, I suddenly recalled the ICO boom of 2017. Back then, we were all discussing "disruption," but most projects vanished into smoke. Looking back now, the key difference is: back then, technology was seeking applications; this year, applications are seeking technology in return.

The DTCC has been approved for on-chain custody of tokenized assets, which is not just regulatory leniency—it's a signal that traditional financial systems are actively embracing the blockchain. I saw Bitcoin being mocked in 2013, and Ethereum being mythologized in 2017. This time, what's different is that this move is driven by Wall Street.

Tom Lee makes a good point: the tokenization super narrative might truly be a 5-10 year long-term game. But I want to add that the most dangerous part of this cycle is precisely its predictability. When everyone sees the direction clearly, it becomes easy to fall into the "certainty trap"—overestimating short-term gains and ignoring structural risks. I've seen too many such cases during the DeFi bubble in 2021.

The real lesson is: recognizing major trends and staying on rhythm are two different things. Tokenization is indeed the right direction, but every cycle adjustment, regulatory reversal, and liquidity drought along the way will wash out a batch of "believers." History never moves in a straight line; only those who see far and can endure can reach the end.