A recent global prediction platform has caused a stir. To date, $65 million has been allocated here in a large-scale "market vote"—the theme revolves around the Federal Reserve's policy direction in January next year.

The data is quite one-sided: 88% of the funds bet that the Fed will not cut interest rates, with only 11% expecting a 25 basis point cut. This is not just a simple difference of opinion but a result of real money voting. When wallets start to speak, this consensus appears especially credible.

Why is the market so confident? Several core factors are at play: inflation remains a concern, the employment market stays hot, and recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have sent clear signals to the market. With these factors stacking up, expectations for rate cuts have cooled.

Interestingly, this prediction mechanism itself is quite persuasive. Participants must put real money on the line for their judgments—correct guesses profit, wrong guesses lose money. No one would casually make a knowingly incorrect prediction. Because of this, when large amounts of capital are pointing in the same direction, the underlying logic deserves serious consideration.

From a technical perspective, the movement of risk assets like BTC will also be influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations. If this market consensus proves true, maintaining a high-interest environment will likely remain the norm in the short term. Conversely, an unexpected rate cut could bring new upward opportunities for risk assets. The market is using real funds to hedge against this uncertainty.