2025-12-26 08:10:44

#比特币与黄金战争 A few minutes before options expiration, $BTC suddenly plunged, but mainstream altcoins did not follow the weakness—this asynchronous phenomenon actually explains a lot.

Why is that? If the market truly had a bearish directional outlook, you would see the entire chain of coins declining, not just Bitcoin alone under pressure. This drop seems more like a structural, settlement-driven volatility rather than a market-wide consensus that "there will be a crash after options expiration."

Looking at the market maker's logic: the maximum pain point for this options cycle is set at $95,000. But the current price is already far from that point, and with little time left until expiration, forcing a rally to hit the pain point no longer makes sense or offers cost efficiency. So market makers start unwinding hedges—selling spot, closing some long contracts. These operations are essentially "risk clearing," which may look like dumping, but do not necessarily indicate genuine bearish sentiment.

The volume and volatility in the final minutes before expiration are often part of settlement or short-term price suppression plays, not sustained real sell orders. What truly matters to watch is not the price action during this period, but—what happens after the 4 o'clock options expiration? Can the market quickly regain and stay above $89,000?

If it recovers swiftly, it indicates that the recent dip was a one-time, technical disturbance. Conversely, if it doesn't, it signals the start of a new downward trend. Now, we just wait for that moment to be confirmed.

BTC0,18%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TopBuyerForever

· 6h ago

Oh dear, it's the same old trick again, market makers cutting leeks and still taking half a day to set the stage? It's really quick to recover, it's just unbelievable. Options are just a disguised tool for manipulation; don't be fooled by analysis. Altcoins didn't follow? I think retail investors just couldn't keep up with the speed of exit.

View OriginalReply0

NFT_Therapy_Group

· 6h ago

Once again, the same rhetoric: market makers "risk clearing" versus retail investors bottom-fishing, it's always the same cut. Once again, the same rhetoric: market makers "risk clearing" versus retail investors bottom-fishing, it's always the same cut. Oh, wait, the fact that the clone didn't follow the decline is indeed worth pondering; it feels like there's something going on. The pain point of 95,000 has no meaning; so now it's just waiting for the 4 o'clock test? Feels like all just excuses. Can the 89,000 line really hold? That truly determines the next move, but it could also all be fake lines—who knows. Quick recovery means nothing? I don't think so; a rebound can also be shorted. The settlement-driven explanation sounds plausible, but in the end, it still depends on where the money flows.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunter007

· 6h ago

Market makers' recent operations are essentially risk clearing; don't be scared. --- The key is not to be out of sync. Only when BTC drops and other coins stay steady does it reveal the real situation. --- Wait for the 4 o'clock validation; if it recovers to 8.9, it proves that what just happened was purely technical. --- All fluctuations before settlement are false; the real test comes afterward. --- The highlight is that altcoins didn't follow the trend, indicating that everyone is still bullish. --- Pain point at 9.5 is already so far away; market makers don't need to insist, the logic makes sense. --- The key is whether it can recover later; that's the crucial factor in judging the direction. --- So, is this market behavior before options expiration just a smokescreen? --- Selling spot and opening futures contracts sounds crazy, but it's just normal risk clearing operations. --- Let's wait for the results; it's just a short-term price suppression play, no need to take it too seriously.

View OriginalReply0

ImpermanentPhobia

· 6h ago

Bro, this wave of analysis is spot on. BTC dropped alone while altcoins didn't move. How did I not think of this detail before? Let's wait until 4 o'clock to see the outcome. I still feel it will return to 8.9. I see through this market maker operation; it's just risk clearing. They play the short-term price suppression game skillfully, but it can't change much. The pain point is so far away; there's no real need to touch it. I've seen through it. Whether it can quickly recover after 4 o'clock is the real key—that's the true test. It's not so scary if it's not genuine sell orders; stay calm. This plunge in BTC feels like a fake-out, just a false move. Not following the trend in altcoins is the real reassurance, indicating there are still bullish views. Let's wait for verification. These few minutes are not worth watching; it's all settlement noise.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationAlert

· 6h ago

It's the same old market maker tactic, basically just clearing out positions through hedging. The key is that altcoins haven't dropped along with it. A single BTC dump doesn't really signal much; let's see what happens at 4 o'clock. I've heard this logic countless times, and in the end, it all comes down to whether it can break back above 8.9.

View OriginalReply0