#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC Options expiration drama unfolds today, with $23 billion in year-end settlements on the horizon. This may be the invisible hand behind the recent price fluctuations within the 85-90 range over the past two weeks.

Short-term liquidity is indeed tight, and market makers are not holding abundant positions. However, once the settlement is completed, this suppressed situation could quickly change—after market makers release liquidity, BTC volatility will follow. With the weekend approaching and crypto market liquidity already thin, the real shift is likely to occur next Monday, and the holiday windows of Christmas and New Year’s may delay the market’s true revival until after New Year’s. On the other hand, US stocks are hitting new highs repeatedly, and market sentiment remains relatively positive, which is a small bullish signal.

Looking at on-chain data of all exchange positions, the two previous clear bottom-buying waves have driven prices upward. Currently, bullish buy orders are reappearing. While I can't say with 100% certainty that prices will rise, investors’ bottom-fishing behavior during this dip is very real.

In terms of candlestick patterns, a "W" bottom is gradually forming, and the bottom-repair phase has lasted nearly two months.

Examining BTC’s UTXO age data, positions at 845 and 87 have accumulated over 1.2 million coins, ranking first and second in on-chain concentration. Such a massive accumulation of chips forms a certain support structurally, which will eventually be digested— the question is whether it moves upward or downward.

The key depends on how upcoming market events unfold. Currently, US stock sentiment remains decent, and no clear bearish factors are evident for now. Simply put: if, after options expiration, the support at 83-87 and 80-82 can hold, then the direction for digesting this massive amount of chips will become gradually clearer.