#比特币价格预测 Another analyst has come out with a target for Bitcoin—rising to $112,500 in a month. Seeing this number, my first reaction isn't excitement, but memories of being caught off guard in those years.

Fibonacci wedges, support levels, monthly targets... I've heard this spiel too many times. Every time, they sound convincing, with impressive data, but what’s the reality? The market never follows the analyst’s script. Is $89,000 to $90,000 a strong support? Under what conditions? Is market sentiment stable? Are there macroeconomic issues? These are all variables.

What hurts the most is that many people go all-in based on these kinds of predictions. When prices rise to a certain point, they think they have a keen eye; when it drops, they blame the market for being unprofessional. But in reality, price prediction is fundamentally a game of probabilities—who dares to claim they can pinpoint the exact moment?

Instead of fixating on those attractive target prices, ask yourself a few questions: Can your principal withstand a drawdown? Do you truly understand what a support level breakout means? If the trend reverses, do you have an emergency plan? These are the concerns of those who want to survive long-term.

Predictions are fine to listen to, but don’t let them dictate your decisions. On the chain, surviving long is always more valuable than making quick money.