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Based on current market information and analyses from multiple institutions, during Christmas period Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a “liquidity contraction”
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The following is the general consensus among several institutions regarding the current market:
1. Core characteristic: Liquidity contraction
· Performance: Market participation significantly decreases as European and American institutions and retail traders take holidays.
· Impact: Reduced liquidity may lead to wider bid-ask spreads and amplified price impact for the same trading volume. Professional data shows that open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts on major exchanges has decreased significantly.
2. General market trend: Range-bound oscillation and low volatility
· Bitcoin: Price fluctuates narrowly between $86,500 and $92,000, lacking a clear direction.
· Ethereum: Hovering below key resistance levels at $2,940 - $3,177.
3. A key risk event
· Large-scale options expiration: Approximately $23.7 billion worth of BTC options and a large amount of ETH options will expire on December 27th (Friday).
· Impact: In a low liquidity environment, this could trigger short-term sharp volatility (historically, Bitcoin has experienced 5%-7% fluctuations during Christmas week).