#美联储降息政策 Looking at this wave of market movement, what comes to mind is the 2016 cycle. At that time, it was also a shift in central bank policies, and the market began pricing in easing expectations, with Bitcoin gradually climbing from the bottom. The current scenario feels quite familiar—The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row, and the market has mostly digested these expectations. The key question is: after the expectations are priced in, where is the actual driving force?

Recent data is quite interesting. After Bitcoin's peak in October and a correction back to $80,000, the 200-day moving average slope turned positive for the first time in a month, which is indeed a positive technical signal. But when I saw another report, I felt a sinking feeling—after the Fed announced rate cuts, Asian stock markets followed suit and rose, while Bitcoin actually declined. What does this indicate? It shows that the rate cut news has already been fully reflected in the price. Now, the market is facing structural selling pressure that outweighs demand.

I've been watching the $80,000 level for a long time. From a technical perspective, it has become a critical support. But a deeper question is—once all policy expectations are priced in, what’s next? Historically, every such moment tests the fundamentals and real demand. If the 52-week high cannot be broken through, it might actually mean that the height of this rebound is limited.

My observation is, don’t be fooled by short-term bullish signals. The key is whether the supports at 88,500 and 85,000 can hold, and when real incremental funds will enter the market. The net inflow into US Bitcoin ETFs is $224 million, which sounds substantial, but at this price level, it’s no longer enough to push prices higher. The logic of this rally is gradually shifting from "policy favorable" to "fundamental support," and this transition process often tests one’s patience.