Market movements are like a carefully choreographed magic show, with the lively surface hiding calculations in the shadows.

Today's trend is truly outrageous. The Bank of Japan announced a rate hike, pushing interest rates to a 30-year high—logically, tightening liquidity should cause risk assets to suffer. But what happened? Bitcoin instead surged all the way, breaking through the $88,000 mark, instantly igniting the community, with all kinds of bullish voices flooding in.

But behind this excitement, I have to be honest—I find it a bit creepy. This isn't a sign of a confirmed trend; it feels more like a blatant "expectation reversal game." The sharper the rise, the more cautious one should be.

**The套路 of news**

Historical experience tells us that yen appreciation usually suppresses risk assets like Bitcoin. Why is this time different? The key lies in the "expectation gap."

When the market collectively waits for bad news to materialize, and it actually does, it often signals a reduction in uncertainty. People who bought in early start to cash out, while a large number of analysts release messages—this rate hike by the Bank of Japan is more like a "make-up lesson," not the start of a tightening cycle. Some even say they won't move until 2027. This gives capital a chance to breathe.

In this kind of "consensus expectation," big funds have already quietly repositioned themselves. The apparent rise is actually the result of meticulous calculation.

**Hidden details in technical analysis**

You can't see the full picture just from news; you need to dig into the technical side. Divergence between volume and price is a serious flaw—something worth pondering.