2025-12-24 14:23:32

Having traded for ten years, I've seen too many people entangled between "relying on intuition" and "trusting technical analysis." To be honest: both are traps. Those who last long in the game are those who internalize trading rules and turn them into their subconscious.

Why do feeling-based traders fail? It's not because a single liquidation wipes them out, but because they keep messing around repeatedly.

Order placement based on intuition is like being a puppet controlled by emotions—when the candlestick moves, their mind gets chaotic, and their plan is always ready to be overturned and restarted. They clearly see the right direction but bail out early due to a small fluctuation, ending up drained by transaction fees and mental fatigue.

And what about technical traders? No matter how sophisticated their indicators are, they can't withstand a sudden spike. The most ironic part is: they judge the direction correctly, but their position is already gone. This kind of "technical liquidation" can directly break a trader's psychological defenses, leading to a vicious cycle of "revenge trading," where the more they struggle, the deeper they fall.

How to break the cycle? Build a trading system that allows you to "sleep well at night."

First, rules trump feelings. Set your stop-loss points before entering a trade, and exit immediately if the price breaks through—don't hesitate with "one more look to see if it rebounds." Execution is more valuable than prediction.

Second, position sizing determines life or death. Never risk more than 10% of your capital on a single trade. Even if you face volatility, it won't wipe you out, and your decisions won't be led by the market.

Third, acknowledge the limitations of tools. Indicators are just probability tools; what truly drives sharp price surges or drops are market consensus and black swan events. No matter how smart you are, you can't predict market surprises.

The cruelty of the futures market is that it doesn't require a one-hit kill. It just slowly erodes you, waiting for you to make a mistake and take the bait.

If you’re always hesitating, anxious, and becoming more exhausted, it means you haven't found a trading logic that suits your rhythm. Instead of fussing over whether to rely on intuition or technical analysis, ask yourself: "How can I prevent the market from destroying me?"

A mature trader isn't devoid of emotions but uses strict rules to lock them away. When you learn to accept small losses, stick to your plan, and trade with positions you can truly afford, the market will treat you more gently.

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MetaNomad

· 8h ago

Damn, this paragraph really hits home. How many people have been fooled by ten-year contracts, really? Rules are the only salvation; both feelings and technology can't be trusted. This is the most honest contract advice I've ever heard. Set your stop-loss and don't look at it; looking will only lead to regret. Having only 10% of your position is the ultimate move; living longer is the real win. By the way, I am currently the one being worn out, never really understanding my own rhythm. In front of black swan events, technical indicators are truly a joke.

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RugDocDetective

· 8h ago

That's so true. Both the hype and technical factions are just fooling themselves, and in the end, they all end up pretty badly. Rules are above everything. Managing a 10% position size sounds simple when you say it, but actually doing it is really difficult. You can't prevent the pinning event; you just have to accept it. The biggest enemy is your mindset.

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DustCollector

· 8h ago

It's too true, both the sentimental and technical camps are just fooling themselves. The key is discipline. --- A veteran of ten years has a different perspective. I used to trade purely on intuition, now I understand why I kept getting wiped out. --- I need to remember the 10% position rule. I used to go all-in all the time, but now I realize I was close to liquidation. --- The term "revenge trading" really hits home. After a margin call, I start placing random orders, losing more and more, trying to turn it around—it's a vicious cycle. --- The saying "rules outweigh feelings" I want to get tattooed on myself. Every time I look at it, I change my plan. --- The hardest part is execution. I set my stop-loss points but still hesitate to hit them—that's the real trap. --- No one can predict black swan events. Even perfect indicators are useless in such moments. This reality is a bit harsh. --- Poor sleep means my trading system isn't set up properly. Even lying in bed now, I keep thinking about K-lines. There must be something wrong somewhere. --- The market is slowly wearing you down, not knocking you out all at once. This description is just a true reflection of myself.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 8h ago

Whoa, my old brother of ten years, this paragraph really hit me. It feels like the "Fighting" faction is just being screwed over by their own brains, the "Technical" faction keeps getting headshot by black swans, and it never ends. — Exactly right, only rules and position sizing are the lifelines. I used to be that kind of idiot who would overturn plans at a glance, but I later realized that a 10% position limit has saved me multiple times. — The term "Revenge Trading" hits too close to home, it describes the period last year... a technical liquidation directly shattered my mentality, then I started going all-in, and kept dying more and more. — I somewhat agree, but I think compared to rules, the more difficult part is execution. It sounds nice to say, but when it comes to breaking levels, I still hesitate. — This guy is right, not making money isn’t because of lack of indicators, but because of poor mentality and position management. I’ve seen too many people die from their own greed. — It feels like the "Fighting" faction really has no future, but pure technical traders also won’t do. I’m now combining both, using indicators + strict stop-loss, and it feels much better recently. — "The market will treat you gently," I laughed when I heard this. The market doesn’t care whether you’re gentle or not, it’s still up to yourself to avoid reckless moves.

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