First, the core conclusion: On December 23rd, BTC is likely to fluctuate in the range of $85,500 to $88,500 (probability 50%), with the direction determined by the higher trade volumes breakout at the support of $85,500 and the resistance of $88,500; liquidity is relatively tight at the end of the year, and a breakout requires volume verification. Below are the executable trading lists for three scenarios.

1. Key Price Levels and Premises (as of December 22, 10:30 AM, UTC+8)

- Core support: $85,569 (78.6% Fibonacci), if lost, look down to $80,000 → $74,000
- Key resistance: $88,500, if broken, look to $90,000→$94,000
- Volume threshold: a breakout requires higher trade volumes (50% above the recent 20-day average), and confirmation of effectiveness requires two consecutive hourly closes outside the key price level.
- Position suggestion: Single risk ≤ account funds 0.5%, avoid heavy positions

Two or three scenario trading lists (December 23)

1. Baseline Scenario (50%, Range Fluctuation)

- Trigger conditions: Price within $85,500-$88,500, low trading volumes, no effective breakthrough.
- Long: Entry 86,000, stop loss 85,200 (lower bound of the range -300), take profit 88,200 (upper bound of the range -300), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.7:1
- Short: Entry at 88,000, Stop loss at 88,800 (upper range +300), Take profit at 86,000 (lower range +400), Risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5:1
- Execution points: Buy low and sell high within the range, trigger stop loss and exit immediately, do not hold positions; single position ≤ 10% of total funds.

2. Optimistic scenario (30%, breakout upwards)

- Trigger Condition: higher trade volumes (+50%) break through 88,500 and hold, with 2 consecutive hourly closes above it.
- Entry: 88,800 (breakout confirmation price)
- Stop Loss: 88,000 (resistance turned support lower edge)
- Take profit 1 (reduce position by 50%): 90,000 (round number)
- Take profit 2 (liquidation): 94,000 (strong resistance)
- Key points: chase after the breakout, do not predict in advance; after the price exceeds 90,000, move the stop loss up to 89,000 to lock in profit.

3. Pessimistic Scenario (20%, downward breakout)

- Trigger condition: Falling below 85,500 and unable to quickly recover, with higher trade volumes, closing below it for 2 consecutive hourly candles.
- Entry: 85,200 (break confirmation price)
- Stop loss: 86,000 (support turned resistance upper edge)
- Take profit 1 (reduce position by 50%): 83,000 (secondary support)
- Take profit 2 (liquidation): 80,000 (psychological barrier)
- Key points: Short after breaking, if it drops below 80,000 and with higher trade volumes, the stop loss can be moved down to 81,000, target at 74,000.

3. Execution and Risk Warning

- Order method: Use conditional orders (limit + stop loss) to avoid manual chasing of orders.
- Liquidity risk: As Christmas approaches, volatility may be amplified, and if there is insufficient higher trade volumes after a breakout, exit immediately.
- News risk: Pay attention to regulatory and macro sudden news, and close positions unconditionally in the event of a black swan.
- Position Management: Total position ≤ 30% of account funds, reserve funds to cope with extreme fluctuations.