As of December 21, 16:50 (current), the BTC price is approximately $88,100, with a 24-hour fluctuation of about k points, showing a narrow range oscillation. On December 22, the focus is on the long and short contest around 88,000-89,500 and the direction confirmation at 90,000, with key support at 85,000 below. Overall, it is highly likely to continue oscillating, waiting for a breakthrough.

1. Key Levels and Bull-Bear Divide (USD)

- Key support: 87,700 (short-term immediate), 88,000 (psychological + 2-hour EMA support), 85,000 (medium-term strong support)
- Core Resistance: 89,500 (Bollinger Band Mid + 4-hour Resistance), 90,000 (Psychological + Trend Boundary), 94,200 (Target after Breakthrough)
- Bull-bear boundary: Stay above 90,000 to be bullish; fall below 85,000 to be bearish; oscillate in between.

2. Technical and Sentiment Analysis

- Daily: The price is consolidating near EMA7/EMA15, with MACD shrinking and forming a golden cross, while the histogram turns red, indicating a short-term rebound; however, the bearish pattern remains unchanged, and it needs to break out and stabilize above 88,000.
- 4 hours: Extreme sideways movement, insufficient volume, EMA contraction, KDJ dead cross + high-level consolidation, EMA has a top divergence, direction unclear, narrow fluctuation in the range of 87,700-89,500.
- 2 hours: MACD golden cross but the histogram is below the zero line, there is a short-term rebound test, but it lacks sustained momentum.
- Sentiment and liquidity: As the Christmas holiday approaches, trading activity is becoming lighter, and volatility is relatively low; institutional positions are stable, and the proportion of leverage and sentiment trading is decreasing, making it more likely to experience fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.

3. Market Trends and Probabilities

1. Fluctuation biased towards bullish (40%): Stabilizing at 88,000, pushing towards 89,500, and if it breaks 90,000 with volume, it is expected to advance towards 94,200.
2. Narrow Fluctuation (45%): Repeatedly within 87,700-89,500, with insufficient volume, making it difficult to break key levels, daily chart continues to show weak consolidation.
3. Downward correction (15%): If it falls below 87,700 and does not quickly recover, it will test 85,000. If it breaks below 85,000, it may further test 84,000-82,000.

4. Operating Ideas (Short-term Reference)

- Long: If it stabilizes after a pullback to 85,300-86,300, it can be a light position, with a stop loss below 85,000 and a target of 87,500-88,500.
- Short: If the rebound reaches resistance at 89,500-90,500, a light position can be taken, with a stop loss above 91,000 and a target below 88,500.
- Risk Control: In a volatile market, positions should not exceed 30%, strict stop-loss should be implemented upon breaking levels, and avoid chasing highs or blindly bottom-fishing.

Five, Important Reminder

- The above analysis is based on data before 16:50 on December 21. Cryptocurrency prices are greatly affected by sudden news, liquidity, and other factors, so predictions carry uncertainty.