Who hasn't sighed over their account? The halving is imminent, yet the price keeps fluctuating around the hundred-thousand level—what was once a "rocket" has completely turned into an "old yellow ox." The circle is full of complaints—miners dumping, retail panic... but these are not the main reasons.

I spent three months tracking the flow of funds, from miner hash power to institutional holdings and exchange traffic, analyzing the data thoroughly. The conclusion I reached was a bit surprising: no one is maliciously dumping. Everyone is "waiting on the sidelines," hoping for something to trigger.

That "something" is actually hidden in the U.S. Treasury's vault. Since the U.S. fell into a fiscal deadlock, this "money bag" that should continuously supply liquidity to the market has been blocked—although they can still issue bonds, these funds simply can't enter the market. Those with long experience in this field know well that crypto assets thrive on the continuous influx of incremental funds. When liquidity tightens, the most volatile assets are the first to be affected.

The logic here is quite simple: short-term emotional fluctuations are just clouds; the sustained supply of funds is the key factor in determining market trends. It's like irrigation—no matter how well plants grow, if the water supply is cut off for a few days, they will wither. The current market isn't inherently problematic; it's the external "water source" that has been temporarily cut off—this is a classic liquidity crunch, not a demand issue.

Recently, chatting with friends in the trading circle, everyone is watching the same signal: when will the "leader" of the U.S. Treasury reopen? Once this gap is filled, the suppressed demand will be released in full. The market has never lacked heat; what it needs is fresh water.