After a poor labor market performance in October, the US hiring momentum in November still shows no signs of improvement.

On December 16th, Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest data. Non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, which is actually a better figure—market expectations were only 50,000—but the underlying unemployment rate has become problematic. The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, reaching the highest level since September 2021. It may seem like a 0.2 percentage point difference, but the signal is clear: the labor market is cooling down.

What do these data indicate? Nick Timiraos, a senior financial journalist known as the "New Federal Reserve Correspondent," offered his assessment: the hiring situation has weakened enough to support the Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent three FOMC meetings' decision to push for rate cuts, but it hasn't worsened to the point where a rate cut in January is unavoidable—especially considering that the federal government shutdown has affected the data's integrity.

How is the market betting? According to Polymarket data, institutions and large investors now believe there is a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the January meeting, with only a 21% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. This indicates that the market has gradually digested the expectation that the "rate cut cycle may be coming to an end." For investors holding BTC and other risk assets, the pace of interest rate policy changes often determines the flow of funds.