#数字资产市场洞察 The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, a number not seen in recent years. It sounds quite positive, but the actual impact on the crypto market may be much more moderate than expected.

To put it simply, it's now a situation where "the pie is in front of you, but you can't eat it right away." The Federal Reserve may indeed cut interest rates later, and the path is clear. However, the key point is: Powell has explicitly stated that this employment data alone is not enough to support a rate cut in January. Looking at the CME probabilities—there's a 75.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged in January next year, and only a 24.4% chance of a cut. This probability distribution really explains the situation.

This kind of "hope but unseen"