Overall market technical read

Risk-off / de-risking day: Majors show broad weakness (BTC ~-2%, ETH ~-3%+) with alts generally bleeding harder (e.g., GRT/CELO/QUBIC hit). That’s a classic “protect capital” tape where rallies get sold and support tests matter more than breakouts.

Sentiment is washed: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is ~23 (Extreme Fear) today—this usually increases volatility and fake-outs, but also creates better entries if you scale and respect invalidation.

ETF flow tone = mixed, not a clean tailwind: Recent BTC spot ETF daily flows have been choppy (big inflow day followed by an outflow day), which often aligns with range/whipsaw conditions.
ETH spot ETFs also printed net outflows (recently reported around Dec 12), which can add pressure to ETH-beta alts during down sessions.

Macro cross-current: Reuters notes investors reacting to a Fed quarter-point cut (risk assets can bounce), but crypto still sold off with broader “risk” moves in equities/tech at points—so crypto is not getting a clean macro bid today.

Key levels & structure to respect (practical)

Using today’s ballpark BTC level around $90k–$91k (from market reports/trackers), the “line in the sand” is psychological + liquidity-driven:

BTC: treat ~90k as the pivot.

Holding above it → range-trade longs can work (quick TP, tight risk).

Losing it cleanly → assume continuation down; only scalp longs at clear reclaim / liquidity sweep setups.

ETH: with ETH underperforming BTC today (your snapshot shows a larger % drop), be stricter with longs; ETH tends to overshoot on fear days.

How to trade today (Futures)

Goal today: survive chop + catch only high-probability moves.

1) Default stance: “sell rallies” unless BTC reclaims and holds above the pivot

If BTC is below key intraday VWAP / prior day midpoint, treat pops as short opportunities.

If BTC sweeps below support then reclaims fast (classic “liquidity sweep”), that’s your best long pattern—but only after confirmation candle closes.

2) Leverage & position sizing (important on Extreme Fear days)

Keep it low leverage (1–3x) for swing attempts; 3–5x max for scalps if you’re experienced.

Risk per trade: 0.5%–1% of account. If you lose 2 trades, stop and reassess (today is a whipsaw day).

3) Pair selection from your list

Best for safer futures today: BTC, ETH (most liquid, cleanest levels).

Avoid for leveraged longs today: the ones already dumping hardest (e.g., GRT/CELO/QUBIC)—they can keep sliding.

Relative strength watch (possible long candidates only on confirmation): coins green or flat while market is red (XRP, BNB, ZRO, AKT) → these can outperform on a rebound, but only after BTC stabilizes.

4) Simple futures playbook (2 setups)

Setup A (Short): rally into resistance + weak follow-through → short with SL just above the rejection wick; TP at prior low.

Setup B (Long): sweep low → strong reclaim → retest holds → long with SL under sweep low; TP at intraday resistance.

How to trade today (Spot)

Spot is where you can actually use the “Extreme Fear” to your advantage—without forcing timing.

Do: stagger buys (DCA in 3–5 tranches) on your highest conviction (BTC/ETH + 1–2 alts).

Don’t: “all-in one candle” today. Fear days often give multiple entries.

Best spot picks from your list (roadmap + resilience):

BTC / ETH: core (ETF narrative + network effects).

LINK (oracle infra), ONDO (RWA narrative), RENDER (compute narrative): good “story coins,” but still treat as high beta—scale in slowly.

XRP: showing relative stability today in your — worth watching for strength continuation.

Roadmap / narrative angle (what matters into 2026)

ETF flows are the short-term throttle: when BTC ETF flows flip positive for multiple days, dips get bought harder; when they’re mixed, expect chop.

RWA / infra / compute narratives (ONDO, LINK, RENDER, AKT) tend to do best when BTC stabilizes and risk appetite returns—today is more “survival mode,” not “full .

#exhausted
#AwaitingFirThatCatalyst