Many people overcomplicate trading. The core is actually very simple—trading is about responding, not predicting.

Let me give you an analogy to make it clear. Two people are playing rock-paper-scissors. Without any rules restricting them, how can you win most easily? The answer is: you move after I do. I make my move, you make yours; I choose rock, you choose paper; I choose paper, you choose scissors. Conversely, what is the hardest way to win? You act a beat faster than me, going before me. In this case, you have to guess my intention, but the problem is you always have the first move, and as a result, most of the time, you'll end up losing everything.

Rock-paper-scissors has fixed rules, so the order of play is limited. But trading is different—no one forces you to make the first move in the market. So what is the smartest approach? Let the market move first. Don’t predict, don’t wish for things to go your way. Whatever pattern the market forms, you respond accordingly. When it actually forms that pattern, then you act—how simple is that?

Why do some people make trading systems as complicated as rocket science? Because they always want to jump ahead, to be one step ahead of the market. But they forget an important point: the market is not your personal stage. If you see an opportunity that everyone else ignores, it’s probably worthless. Only directions recognized by the majority are worth following.

Let’s use an analogy: instead of looking for a wall and pushing hard to see if it will fall, it’s better to find a wall that’s already about to be pushed over by everyone, and push along with it. Trading, in essence, is speculation. Speculation is about understanding the tricks of the trade—don’t always try to defy the heavens and change your fate.