Bitcoin Defends Macro Support: $110K Breakout Needed to End Correction

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Bitcoin Defends Macro Support: $110K Breakout Needed to End Correction Original Link:

Key Highlights

• Technical Reversal: Analyst Dave the Wave identifies $110K as the invalidation point for the current downtrend, with major support at $70K–$75K.
• Fed Liquidity: The Federal Reserve executed its third consecutive rate cut this week, historically a precursor to risk-asset repricing.
• On-Chain Capitulation: Short-Term Holders have been underwater for 45 days, a duration that typically signals seller exhaustion and a local bottom.

Technical Analysis: The $110K Breakout Level

Bitcoin shot up 2% in the past 24 hours, even though the coin still sits more than 10% lower on the monthly chart. Analyst Dave the Wave noted that the price now trades in the mid-90K zone, under a clear descending resistance line.

The analyst pointed to a long-term structure with an orange trendline overhead that marks a multi-year resistance area, while green and white rising trendlines below guide support toward the 70K–75K region.

Dave the Wave also looked at the weekly MACD, which did not stretch too far in earlier bullish phases. Because of this, he said the indicator is not at risk of a sharp pullback.

He said that a clear breakout above heavy resistance toward the 110K region would remove the case for any future pullbacks. However, a re-test of the 70K support area would still sit inside the long-term ascending channel that has guided BTC since its earlier cycles.

Fed’s Rate Path Supports Rebound

The US Federal Reserve’s rate cut on Wednesday, a third cut in three months and a total reduction of 0.75% from September to December, also pushed BTC higher.

Santiment data showed that each cut in this cycle came with a short-term sell-off, matching a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. But the firm also said that markets usually find a bounce after the early drop.

Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments Jurrien Timmer discussed the longer view and said Bitcoin underperformed stocks this year. However, he also said the broader market now looks more mature than previous cycles.

On-Chain Signal: Short-Term Holder Capitulation

CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holders saw profits on 229 days and losses on 116 days this year. Price sat above the short-term holder Realized Price from January 1 to February 23 for 54 days, then spent 57 days below it from February 24 onward.

From April 22 to October 13, price stayed above this level for 172 days, aside from three brief dips. On October 14, price fell below it again for 11 days before moving back above it on October 25.

But after only three days of relief, Bitcoin closed below it again on October 28, bringing the current count to 45 days of losses for these traders. This extended period of underwater positions typically signals seller exhaustion and may indicate a potential local bottom.