Market overview

Total crypto market cap: ≈ $3.07T, down ~1–2% in the last 24h – a red but not panic day.

Bitcoin (BTC): ~$90–92k, roughly -2% on the day, still very high historically but ~10–20% below recent highs above $100k.

Ethereum (ETH): ≈ $3.2k, underperforming BTC over the last 24h (-5–6%).

XRP: ≈ $2.02, -2–3% on the day, but with strong institutional derivatives interest recently (CME futures OI near $1B).

BTC dominance: ~58–59%, still very BTC-led.

Sentiment & leverage

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: around 29 – “Fear”, i.e., dip-buyers are cautious, not euphoric.

BTC futures open interest: around $68B, near all-time highs, with a big share on CME (≈30%), showing strong institutional positioning but also a crowded derivatives market.

Funding rates: mostly slightly positive across major exchanges – still long-biased but not insane degen levels.

Macro backdrop (Fed)

On 10 Dec 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps and signalled only one cut in 2026 – essentially “we’re easing, but slowly.”

BTC spiked above $94k on the news, then retraced, with Coindesk calling price action volatile around the Fed headlines.

🏁 Bottom line for today:
We’re in a bullish cycle overall, but short-term we’re in a mid-cycle reset / post-Fed shakeout: high OI, moderate fear, and price still very high vs history but off the top.

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2. Technical picture

2.1. Total market cap (TOTAL)

TOTAL is hovering a bit above $3T, below the recent push above $3.1–3.2T, and below last year’s peak near $3.7T.

Recent days: slight downtrend from $3.16T → $3.11T → ~$3.07T – classic cool-off after a big run, not a full trend reversal yet.

👉 Interpretation:

Macro trend: still up (higher highs vs 2024).

Short-term: pullback / range – risk of more choppy downside if macro or funding flips, but no confirmed full “end of cycle” yet.

2.2. Bitcoin (BTC)

From combined data:

Price pumped above 94k post-Fed, then faded back to ~90–92k.

Earlier in Dec, BTC briefly slipped under some longer-term averages and below 90k, then rebounded – typical “shakeout” behaviour.

OI at ATH + mostly positive funding = crowded longs, even though sentiment index says “Fear”.

👉 My structural view:

High-timeframe: still bullish – we’re in a post-ETF / institutional phase where JPM and others are openly talking about BTC 6–12 month upside even beyond current levels.

Mid-timeframe (weeks): mid-cycle reset / distribution zone – market is deciding whether to push to new highs (~100k+) or have a deeper correction (80k area) to flush leverage.

Short-timeframe (next few days):

Likely chop between roughly high-80ks and low-90ks with violent wicks on macro headlines.

Expect stop-hunts around recent highs (~93–95k) and lows (~88–89k).

2.3. Altcoins

Altcoins as a group are lagging BTC, with many low caps still weak compared with the past two years, even in this bull.

There are rotations: some days ZEC or other privacy coins lead; other days L1s or memes. But broadly, money still respects BTC + major L1/L2s.

👉 Takeaway:

It’s still “BTC king, majors next, then selective narratives”.

Random low caps remain high risk with less upside vs the previous cycle.

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3. How I’d trade this environment – today’s playbook

Huge disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It’s a trading framework you can adapt to your own risk, size, and entries.

3.1. Spot trading plan

a) If you’re stacking BTC/ETH (long-term investor style)

Bias: still bullish long-term.

Tactics:

Stick to DCA or buy-the-dip on red days like today (-1–2% market cap, BTC slightly red).

Avoid chasing green impulsive candles after big news (e.g., immediately after Fed headlines).

Define a “pain line” where you reduce risk if the macro picture changes (for example, multiple daily closes clearly below the recent range lows in the high-80ks for BTC).

b) For majors & narratives (SOL, NEAR, SUI, AI, RWA, infra etc.)

Prioritise:

1. High-liquidity majors (SOL, ETH, quality L1/L2s).

2. Narratives with real traction & roadmaps (RWA, AI, infra like compute/storage, quality DeFi).

Entries:

Look for spots where a major alt is retesting prior breakout zones or daily support while BTC is holding its range.

Avoid entries when BTC is at the top of its intraday range – if BTC wicks down, alts get nuked harder.

Risk:

Avoid over-loading on thin meme/low-caps; current cycle has been cruel to low caps outside a few hype spikes.

3.2. Futures trading plan

Given: ATH open interest + positive funding + Fear index, this smells like leveraged longs that are nervous but still in the game.

a) General rules (especially on Gate.io futures)

Low leverage: 2–5x max for directional trades. In this regime, leverage kills.

Tighter risk management: Use hard stop-losses; don’t “hope” through Fed-related vol.

Focus on BTC, ETH, major high-liquidity pairs – less slippage, cleaner structure.

b) Directional bias for the next couple of days

Short-term bias: “Sell euphoria, buy ugly dips within the range”

When BTC tests upper range (around 93–95k) after a fast spike:

Look for toppy structures (rejection wicks, lower highs on lower timeframes).

Consider small, tight-risk shorts with targets back to the mid-range.

When BTC spikes down to lower range (high-80ks) with panic:

Watch for wicks + funding flipping neutral or even negative.

Consider scalp longs back to the mid-range, especially if Fear index plunges but structure holds.

Given funding is mildly positive and OI is huge, I would not be comfortable with heavy swing longs here without hedges.

c) Hedge strategy if you’re spot heavy

If you’re already holding a big spot bag (BTC + alts):

Use small BTC or ETH short positions (perps) around resistance as a hedge, not a pure bet:

Size your hedge so that a 5–10% BTC drop is mostly offset by your short PnL.

Close hedge gradually if BTC convincingly breaks above the range high with volume (e.g., clean close above mid-90ks with follow-through).

d) Avoid these futures mistakes right now

Over-leveraged breakouts: FOMO longing a Fed or ETF headline spike while funding is positive and OI is high.

Holding large unhedged futures positions over macro events (Fed speeches, US data).

Swing trading low-cap alts with big leverage – order books are thin, slippage + wicks = instant liquidation.

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4. Roadmap / narrative context (why this matters for your medium-term plan)

Institutional adoption:

CME’s big share of BTC futures OI and the ATH OI itself show that institutions are very active, not just degen retail.

Fed cutting cycle:

A rate-cut environment is historically supportive of risk assets like crypto, but the market is forward-looking – a lot is already priced in, hence “buy the rumour, choppy on the news.”

Altcoin cycles:

Alts tend to trail BTC – typically strong alt seasons show up after BTC consolidates at new highs. Right now, we’re in the “BTC leads, alts selective” phase, not full-blown alt mania.

So your medium-term roadmap could be:

1. Accumulate BTC/ETH on dips as long as macro and structure remain bullish.

2. Rotate profit from BTC → majors → selective narratives when total market cap pushes back toward previous highs and BTC vol compresses.

3. Keep futures as a tactical tool (hedging + short-term trades), not your main exposure, while OI and funding stay elevated.

#CycleReset
#CryptoMarketRebound