#数字资产生态回暖 Is this a true bull market starting point or a trap to shake out traders? After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin not only failed to rise but actually declined. What's really going on behind the scenes?

Honestly, we are currently stuck in the phase of broad volatile rebound after a sharp bear market decline. The most violent downtrend has probably passed, but if we want market confidence to fully recover? We’ll need to take it slow. In the short term, there will definitely be ups and downs, essentially solidifying the bottom.

Why haven't the expected rate cuts and balance sheet expansions triggered a rally? To put it simply, the good news has already been priced in—buy the anticipation, sell the reality, classic playbook. Even more disheartening is that there are disagreements within the Federal Reserve about the policy outlook. The dot plot’s conservative rate cut expectations for 2026 have directly dampened the market’s long-term easing hopes. Although they announced balance sheet expansion, the scale and purpose are clear—mainly to maintain sufficient bank reserves, not to flood the market with liquidity. Relying on this to produce strong new liquidity and drive a rally in the short term is basically a lost cause.

The signals from this meeting are very complex, even somewhat contradictory. The most critical variable is who will decide the direction of interest rates in 2026—because next year, there may be personnel changes in the Fed leadership, which could influence policy tone.

For retail investors like us, trying to precisely predict how each macro event will impact the market? Basically impossible. There’s often a time lag and expectation gap between policy signals and actual market reactions. Instead of getting bogged down in the logic behind every piece of news, it’s better to focus on identifying the true market trend. When the trend is clear, the certainty of executing based on that is much higher than guessing the news intentions.