#美联储降息预测

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as scheduled in December 2025, lowering the federal funds target rate to 3.50% to 3.75%, while simultaneously initiating a mini-QE of short-term Treasury purchases to increase liquidity. On the surface, this move aligns with the market's high expectations of up to 90%, but a deeper look into the details behind the decision reveals a central bank struggling amid a triple dilemma.

First is the dilemma of blind rate cuts due to missing data. The government shutdown led to delays in key economic indicators such as CPI and non-farm payrolls, forcing the Fed to make significant decisions without comprehensive, official information. It's like driving through thick fog, increasing the risk of misjudgment and policy errors.

Second is the internal division exacerbating cracks within the decision-making body. The rare appearance of three dissenting votes highlights profound contradictions among policymakers between stabilizing prices and maximizing employment. This internal tension suggests future policy paths will be more volatile and uncertain.

Most notably, there are potential AI-related structural risks. Slowing employment may partly stem from companies replacing human labor with AI, representing structural unemployment rather than cyclical downturns. If the Fed continues to cut rates cyclically to address structural challenges, the effectiveness will be greatly diminished, and it could even accelerate AI investments, thereby worsening structural unemployment and creating a counterproductive policy feedback loop.

The Fed's consecutive rate cuts are a defensive response to economic slowdown, but this decision appears more like a gesture of easing rather than a carefully considered outcome based on sufficient data. Under conditions of blind rate cuts and internal divisions, market optimism should be cautious. Especially with AI-driven structural employment changes, which may pose deeper challenges than traditional inflation or employment models, the Fed has yet to find effective tools to address this new normal. Future policy outlooks will rely more on data than promises, with many uncertainties.