#数字资产生态回暖 Tonight's market may keep everyone awake. The Federal Reserve's major decision countdown is underway, and the crypto market is waiting for the next move in global liquidity.

$BTC has approached 100,000, and $ETH has broken through 4000—such gains seem aggressive, but traders understand that the true pricing power is in the statement at 3 a.m.

The market consensus is that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut, expected to be 25 basis points. The key, however, lies in the policy signals behind this rate cut.

Internal voices are divided. Those supporting continued easing believe the labor market is already weakening, with data showing slowing hiring and increased layoffs. But those insisting on a prudent stance remain firm—inflation is still above the 2% target, and core PCE data remains high. Easing now could lay the groundwork for future problems.

The likely outcome is a delicate balance: rate cuts are delivered to show goodwill, but the language will be particularly cautious. Every word will be amplified and analyzed by the market. The latest dot plot update will reveal internal divisions—some call for a sharp 50 basis point cut, while others strongly oppose further easing; a silent battle is playing out within the data.

Beyond interest rates, another card is balance sheet operations. The balance sheet reduction was just paused in October, and bond purchases (though not officially called QE) may restart. This will particularly impact liquidity expectations, making risk assets like $DOGE and $ASTER especially sensitive.

The pricing logic in the crypto market is quite straightforward: rate cuts have already been priced in, and what the market truly cares about is when the Fed will stop providing liquidity. Once this turning point is confirmed, capital allocation will undergo a fundamental shift.

Tonight is not just about the rate decision; it’s a re-pricing of the global capital flow for next year. Participants across various assets are already in position, waiting for this guidance.