One thing I've been repeating lately—don’t rush to call the top or bottom. First, figure out the trend, then make your move.
Remember that chart from before? $BTC I marked 94,000 and 90-88 as key levels. Fans often DM me asking, "Everyone else is calling for 130,000-150,000, what do you think?" My answer is always: If you can't even walk the path in front of you steadily, why talk about distant dreams? Setting expectations when you don't even have a clear direction—what's the point?
Last night, the price finally stopped dropping near 88, which is just barely passing. But I have to make it clear today—this support level can only be used once. Why? Because I didn’t mark this level based on candlesticks, but by looking at order book data. Back then, the buy orders in this range were large and thick, so there was enough demand to hold the price. But now those orders have all been filled, the ammo is spent, and next time it won't have the same effect. Either new orders pile up again, or we’ll have to look for other areas with dense orders.
As for the 21-day moving average, you can keep watching it. The logic I mentioned before still holds: if the price can’t stay above it, it’s just a regular bounce. Only if it holds above does it signal a real reversal.
Some people might find it odd: using order book data for the downside and moving averages for the upside—doesn’t that seem messy? I actually think it’s pretty normal. Doesn’t matter if it’s a black cat or white cat, as long as it catches mice, it’s a good cat. Who knows, maybe one day you’ll combine these “unrelated” tools too.
It’s like the theories we learned in school—copying them directly doesn’t work in real life. But if you combine textbook knowledge with real-world experience, that’s true skill. You have to keep adding to your toolbox, but first—you need to have a toolbox.
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FlashLoanPrince
· 12-10 06:39
I remember the saying that the support level can only be used once, and if the ammunition runs out, it really won't come next time
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DYORMaster
· 12-09 16:02
This support level can really only be used once. Next time it comes around, its strength just won't be the same.
The metaphor about running out of ammo is spot on. We really have to wait for new orders to pile up.
It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white—as long as it catches mice, it's a good cat. That's exactly how we need to play it.
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TokenVelocityTrauma
· 12-09 15:42
The metaphor "out of ammo" is perfect—next time, 88 might not be a support level anymore.
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EntryPositionAnalyst
· 12-09 15:41
The metaphor "out of ammo" is perfect. Next time if we really want 88, we'll have to bring in new players.
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SnapshotDayLaborer
· 12-09 15:32
The phrase "out of ammo" is spot on. If it drops to 88 again next time, it probably won't work out.
One thing I've been repeating lately—don’t rush to call the top or bottom. First, figure out the trend, then make your move.
Remember that chart from before? $BTC I marked 94,000 and 90-88 as key levels. Fans often DM me asking, "Everyone else is calling for 130,000-150,000, what do you think?" My answer is always: If you can't even walk the path in front of you steadily, why talk about distant dreams? Setting expectations when you don't even have a clear direction—what's the point?
Last night, the price finally stopped dropping near 88, which is just barely passing. But I have to make it clear today—this support level can only be used once. Why? Because I didn’t mark this level based on candlesticks, but by looking at order book data. Back then, the buy orders in this range were large and thick, so there was enough demand to hold the price. But now those orders have all been filled, the ammo is spent, and next time it won't have the same effect. Either new orders pile up again, or we’ll have to look for other areas with dense orders.
As for the 21-day moving average, you can keep watching it. The logic I mentioned before still holds: if the price can’t stay above it, it’s just a regular bounce. Only if it holds above does it signal a real reversal.
Some people might find it odd: using order book data for the downside and moving averages for the upside—doesn’t that seem messy? I actually think it’s pretty normal. Doesn’t matter if it’s a black cat or white cat, as long as it catches mice, it’s a good cat. Who knows, maybe one day you’ll combine these “unrelated” tools too.
It’s like the theories we learned in school—copying them directly doesn’t work in real life. But if you combine textbook knowledge with real-world experience, that’s true skill. You have to keep adding to your toolbox, but first—you need to have a toolbox.