The policy direction has suddenly shifted.

U.S. President Trump just made a public statement, directly demanding that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell must cut interest rates next week. What’s even more intriguing is that he specifically cited JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s opinion as evidence—“Even Dimon thinks it’s time to cut rates.”

This detail is subtle. Dimon has always been known for his conservative and cautious approach, and his attitude toward crypto assets has fluctuated over the past few years. Now, this old Wall Street veteran has suddenly turned to support an easing policy, and the signal behind this move cannot be ignored: traditional financial institutions have begun to bet on a shift in liquidity.

Market data is even more straightforward. Currently, traders are pricing in a 98% chance of a rate cut in July—there’s almost no suspense. Meanwhile, funds have started to reposition in advance—some hedge funds are reallocating their risk asset ratios, waiting for the liquidity floodgates to open.

But the question is, how much of this round of rate cut expectations is driven by economic fundamentals, and how much is mixed with political considerations? Especially with the election cycle approaching, the timing of policy tools always carries extra intrigue.

For the crypto market, rate cuts usually mean a weaker dollar and a return of risk appetite. Bitcoin has indeed benefited significantly in past easing cycles. But this time there’s a variable: the market has already fully priced in expectations of a rate cut in advance, so will we see the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reversal when it actually happens?

It’s still too early to bet on a direction. Observing the Fed’s actual actions next week, as well as any changes in the post-meeting statement, may be wiser than picking sides now. After all, on the chessboard of policy games, the biggest uncertainties often lie in the final stretch.