Just now, there’s big news from the Federal Reserve—the quantitative tightening (QT) program has officially ended.

To put it simply, the “liquidity withdrawal” operation that started in June 2022 has now come to a complete stop. The $1.5 trillion that the Fed has pulled out of the market over the past two years will no longer be withdrawn. What’s even more crucial? Stopping QT is actually making room for the next round of liquidity injections.

Let’s look at a few numbers to get a sense of the situation:

The balance sheet has finally stopped shrinking, and the pressure to sell off U.S. Treasuries has instantly disappeared. How is the market reacting? The probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 98%, and expectations for total rate cuts next year have added up to more than 150 basis points. Liquidity indicators like the SOFR rate and overnight reverse repo balances are likely to see a turning point soon.

Looking back at historical data, you’ll find that in the six months after the last QT ended, U.S. stocks rose by over 18% on average. As for assets like Bitcoin that are extremely sensitive to liquidity? In the last easing cycle, it surged more than 12x. Of course, there’s no guarantee this will play out the same way again, but the logic holds—when there’s more water, the boat naturally floats higher.

But don’t get too excited just yet. After good news like this comes out, short-term pullbacks are actually the norm—we’ve seen plenty of “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenarios. The real, trend-defining opportunity will come when rate cuts are actually implemented and the Fed’s balance sheet starts expanding again—in other words, when QE officially kicks off. The next key date? Keep an eye on the December FOMC meeting, watch how the dot plot is drawn, and listen to how Powell talks about “balance sheet reduction” and “reinvestment.”

The bond market will benefit first, with U.S. Treasury yields pushed down. Then, bank reserves will increase, and the ammunition for risk assets will be replenished. For cryptocurrencies—highly volatile assets like these—liquidity is everything.

At this critical moment, some people are already fully invested and waiting for the wind to blow, some are building positions in batches and buying on dips, while others are still waiting on the sidelines for confirmation of a pullback. There’s no right or wrong strategy—just different choices. In a week, the market will give us the first wave of answers.