#美联储政策与利率决策 Looking back, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions have always influenced market sentiment. This time, the Beige Book survey once again demonstrates the complex nature of the economy. The "K-shaped divergence" in the consumer market is thought-provoking: high-end consumer groups remain active, while spending among other groups is declining. This divergence inevitably reminds me of the post-2008 financial crisis scenario, when a similar trend in consumer spending appeared.

The subtle changes in employment and inflation data also bring to mind the late 1990s. Back then, economic growth was strong but inflation was moderate, and the policy choices facing the Fed were quite similar to today's situation. History always seems to repeat itself in different ways.

Currently, policymakers are divided on whether to adjust interest rates, and such internal debate is actually not uncommon. I remember during the dot-com bubble in 2000, there were fierce discussions within the Fed about the direction of policy.

From historical experience, the Federal Reserve tends to take a cautious approach when facing complex economic conditions. I expect they may keep interest rates unchanged in the near term while closely monitoring changes in various economic indicators. Investors should remain vigilant and pay attention to the market's reaction following the release of the Beige Book, as this could affect the investment environment for some time to come.