Bitcoin Tries to Break Higher but Smart Money Is Still Hedging: What's Next?

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Bitcoin Tries to Break Higher but Smart Money Is Still Hedging: What’s Next? Original Link: Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse highlights a mixed backdrop: trading volumes improved and short-term momentum picked up, yet deeper structural indicators reflect hesitation, softer risk appetite, and a clear preference for downside protection.

Realized Cap Change: Momentum Improves but Confidence Lags

The Realized Cap Change chart shows a modest uptick, aligning with Bitcoin’s recent bounce. Historically, rising realized cap growth corresponds to fresh capital entering the market or long-dormant supply revaluing at higher prices.

However, the indicator remains well below the mid-2024 peaks, signaling that while momentum has improved, the broader market is still cautious. Strong follow-through typically requires sustained realized cap expansion, a trend that has yet to materialize convincingly.

Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Points to Controlled Optimism

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has moved off its lows but continues to fluctuate in a compressed range. This behavior shows that the market is attempting to regain constructive footing, yet is not seeing the kind of profit-taking spikes or capitulation flushes that usually reset sentiment.

The muted reaction around the $94K move suggests investors are neither aggressively locking in gains nor panic-selling, a sign of indecision rather than conviction.

Volatility Spread Highlights Tighter Conditions

The Volatility Spread remains suppressed, hovering near the lower range of its high-low bands. A tight volatility environment can precede major directional moves, but in the current context, it reflects a cooling market where traders are reluctant to price in aggressive upside.

Periods of compressed volatility often lead to expansion, but directional bias tends to depend on broader macro and liquidity conditions, both of which currently show mixed signals.

Options Delta Skew Shows Clear Demand for Downside Protection

The most decisive signal comes from the Options Delta Skew, which has risen sharply. This spike reflects increased demand for downside hedging, with traders showing preference for protective puts over speculative call exposure.

This shift fits with weakening Spot CVD and falling open interest, both highlighted in Glassnode’s commentary. Spot CVD trending lower indicates reduced spot-buying aggression, while declining OI suggests traders are scaling back leveraged positions.

Together, they paint a picture of a market preparing for potential turbulence rather than positioning confidently for a breakout.

ETF Flows Add to the Caution

While Bitcoin reclaimed higher levels briefly, ongoing ETF outflows underline a softer appetite from traditional investors. Spot ETF flows have been a dominant market driver for most of 2025, and periods of outflows typically coincide with reduced upward pressure.

With ETF demand pulling back and derivatives positioning skewing defensive, the recent price rebound has yet to inspire broad conviction.