The final FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2025 is scheduled for December 9-10. As the key meeting wrapping up the year’s monetary policy, its decisions will directly impact the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets, and set the tone for market risk sentiment at the start of 2026. Market attention is focused on rate cut expectations and liquidity adjustments, with investors and economists closely watching.

Regarding the meeting schedule, December 9 will be reserved for internal discussions, while the main public sessions will take place on December 10: at 2:00 p.m. ET, the policy statement will be released, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell at 2:30 p.m. The meeting minutes are scheduled for release three weeks later, on January 8, 2026. During the meeting, there will be a key review of employment data, inflation trends, economic conditions, and potential interest rate changes.

The main focus is on the rate decision and economic projections. Currently, markets have strong expectations for a rate cut at this meeting, with an estimated 87% probability of lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from the current 3.75%-4.00% range to 3.50%-3.75%. This would be another easing move following the October rate cut. However, there is disagreement among FOMC members, with some advocating caution due to conflicting inflation data and strong GDP growth. Additionally, this meeting will confirm the end of quantitative tightening as of December 1, officially ceasing the monthly reduction of $9.5 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Market liquidity is expected to gradually improve thereafter. The latest dot plot and summary of economic projections will also be released, which may hint at the degree of easing policy in 2026. If inflation continues to fall, there could be another 50 basis point rate cut in the future.

On the market impact front, currency traders will adjust their positions based on policy signals from the meeting, while the stock and bond markets will respond quickly. The cryptocurrency market is especially sensitive to the decision; a 25 basis point rate cut could drive capital flows into risk assets, pushing Bitcoin up to $95,000-$100,000, with Ethereum, Solana, and others strengthening in tandem. If the Fed adopts a hawkish pause on rate cuts, Bitcoin could fall back to $87,000-$90,000, and altcoins would come under pressure as traders adjust leveraged positions. Market volatility on the day of the meeting could rise by 20%-30%, and Powell’s remarks will be a key short-term volatility trigger. The effects of this meeting are likely to last into early 2026.

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