ALTCOINS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO A BOTTOM THAN A TOP and if you zoom out on the right charts, the message is loud and clear.

Most people stare at M2, but this cycle’s real leading signal has been US small caps, specifically the Russell 2000 (IWM).

And guess what?

IWM just printed the highest monthly close in its entire history and is now pushing straight into its 2025 highs, right at the top of the range.

When US small caps do this, it’s one thing only:

Liquidity is returning
Risk appetite is rising
The market is willing to bet again

Altcoins and IWM have always tracked US liquidity. Whenever small caps enter expansion mode, alts follow with explosive delayed moves.

Look at the chart:

IWM has cleanly broken or retested the major horizontal levels from 2015, 2018, and 2021.

Each time this happened:

→ BTC pushed up shortly after
→ ALTCOINS followed with a delay, and those moves ended up being some of the strongest rallies of the cycle.

Right now?
IWM is back at 2025 highs.
BTC and alts are still far below their respective peaks.

This exact lag structure showed up right before altcoins exploded in the 2020–2021 cycle.

And here’s the part almost nobody talks about:

A multi-year bear market has NEVER started while IWM was making new highs.

Every true bear market in the past aligned with weak small caps, not record-breaking ones.

Now look at Bitcoin:
→ Higher-timeframe trend from the 2022 lows is still bullish.
→ BTC is re-coupling with equities (risk-on behavior returning).
→ Yes, lower timeframe levels broke, but HTF structure remains a mid-cycle drawdown, not a cycle top.

Now add the macro:

→ The Fed has already entered a rate-cutting cycle
→ Big banks expect QE-like liquidity measures by early 2026
→ Trump is openly talking about removing income tax and sending $2,000 tariff dividends
→ Fiscal expansion + monetary easing = liquidity tailwinds

When you stack everything:
• IWM = strongest monthly close ever
• Pushing into 2025 highs
• BTC maintains HTF bullish structure
• Alts historically follow IWM with a lag
• No bear market has ever started with small caps breaking highs
• Macro setup is leaning toward more liquidity, not less
• Multiple analysts now model a 2026 cycle peak, not 2025

The conclusion is simple:

This does NOT look like the start of a bear market.

This looks like an extended cycle, where BTC and altcoins still have room to make brand-new highs in 2026 if this liquidity regime holds.

Zoom out.

Stop panicking at local volatility.

The real signals aren’t pointing down. They’re warming up.