Recently, expectations of US monetary policy, new government regulatory moves, macroeconomic data, and enforcement actions have collectively driven sharp volatility in Bitcoin prices, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In the short term, there is a dual impact pattern of "easing expectations providing a floor, policy uncertainty exerting pressure."

I. Monetary Policy: Rate Cut Expectations as Core Support, Policy Swings Amplify Volatility

The shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is a key macro factor affecting Bitcoin trends, with alternating dominance between easing expectations and conflicting signals:

1. Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Rebound: In November, US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 (the largest drop since March 2023), coupled with concerns about slowing economic growth. The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December surged to 89%. Easing expectations lower the holding cost of non-yielding assets, driving Bitcoin to rebound sharply from around $85,000 to the $93,000 mark in early December.
2. Conflicting Policy Signals Trigger Volatility: Some Fed officials hinted at the need to reassess inflation risks, with ambiguous policy statements. Combined with the liquidity boost from the end-of-year quantitative tightening (QT) exit plan, this caused Bitcoin prices to experience "rollercoaster" moves, with multiple single-day swings of more than 4% in December. Leveraged positions were frequently liquidated, with 24-hour liquidation amounts exceeding $1 billion at their peak.

II. Regulatory Policy: Dual Impact of Compliance Progress and New Policy Uncertainty

US cryptocurrency regulatory developments influence the market from the perspectives of "clear entry criteria" and "future risks," with short-term panic and long-term positives coexisting:

1. Compliance Progress Attracts Institutions: The earlier passage of the US "GENIUS Act" and SEC approval of a physical spot Bitcoin ETF addressed core issues such as custody and compliance, driving large-scale institutional inflows and reinforcing Bitcoin's status as a legitimate asset—becoming a key foundation for price increases in the second half of the year. At the same time, the SEC clarified Bitcoin regulatory authority under the CFTC and removed the 2026 cryptocurrency review plan, reducing long-term regulatory uncertainty and attracting compliant capital from pension funds and hedge funds.
2. New Government Regulatory Rumors Trigger Sell-Off: With the inauguration of the new Trump administration approaching in January, market rumors emerged that the new government would tighten anti-money laundering (AML) compliance and re-evaluate stablecoin issuance qualifications. Institutions, worried about rising holding costs, opted to sell off in advance, directly causing Bitcoin to fall below $85,000 on December 8—the largest single-day drop since mid-November.

III. Macroeconomic Data: Employment and Growth Figures Heighten Market Sensitivity

Weak performance in key US macroeconomic data has both reinforced easing expectations and raised concerns about economic downturns, indirectly affecting Bitcoin's risk asset pricing:

1. Weak Employment Data Supports Risk Assets: In November, negative ADP employment growth and a plunge in consumer confidence confirmed a cooling US job market, further supporting the logic for Fed rate cuts and prompting capital rotation from dollars and bonds into risk assets like Bitcoin—serving as a direct driver of price rebounds.
2. Growth Downgrade Triggers Risk-Off Sentiment: The OECD cut its 2026 US economic growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.7%, with global growth expectations also revised down to 2.9%. Combined with increased market confusion from the US tariff policy swings, some investors exited high-risk assets, triggering a 6.2% single-day plunge in Bitcoin in early December, wiping out $230 billion in market value.

IV. Enforcement Actions: Short-Term Confidence Shock, Long-Term Industry Standardization

US Department of Justice cryptocurrency enforcement actions have a short-term negative impact on market confidence but are beneficial for industry compliance in the long run, reflecting a "short-term bearish, long-term neutral-to-bullish" effect:

1. Short-Term Erosion of Market Trust: The US DOJ conducted the largest-ever Bitcoin seizure, holding over 320,000 coins and becoming one of the world's largest single holders. Law enforcement's ability to crack private keys shattered the market perception of Bitcoin's "decentralization" and "absolute private key security," causing steep price drops in late November and single-day ETF net outflows exceeding $870 million.
2. Long-Term Reinforcement of Compliance: Enforcement actions demonstrated the traceability of Bitcoin's blockchain, proving that crypto is not outside the law and further reducing concerns for compliant institutions. Data shows that 152 listed companies now hold Bitcoin, institutional trading volume accounts for 99.5%, and industry compliance is accelerating.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently highly sensitive to US news. In the short term, focus should be on the December Fed rate decision (whether a rate cut is implemented and the policy statement's tone). In the long term, attention should be on the implementation of new government regulatory rules and continued institutional inflows. The price is likely to remain highly volatile, with policy signals and liquidity changes as the core pricing logic.
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