#美联储货币政策 The unexpected drop in US initial jobless claims this time reminds me of the period following the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, weekly employment data drew a lot of attention, almost becoming a barometer for economic recovery. Looking at it now, history seems to be repeating itself, albeit with a slightly different backdrop.

The current resilience of the job market is indeed surprising, but we cannot ignore the decline in the consumer confidence index. These contradictory signals bring to mind similar situations in past economic cycles. Typically, changes in consumer confidence tend to precede substantive shifts in the job market.

The dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve now is quite similar to what happened at the end of several tightening cycles in history. The trade-off between high inflation and a weakening job market always leaves policymakers in a quandary. Looking back, we can see that focusing too much on a single indicator often leads to policy mistakes.

Comparing economists’ expectations for 2026 to those after the 2008 crisis, I can’t help but recall how forecasts back then were often overly optimistic, underestimating the lasting impact of structural issues. Are we making the same mistake now? After all, history tells us that economic recoveries are rarely linear.

From a long-term historical perspective, the current situation is actually not uncommon. Every economic cycle has its unique characteristics, but the core issues are often strikingly similar. We should learn from the past, remain cautious and flexible, because markets are always unpredictable, and although history does not repeat itself, it often rhymes.