#ETH走势分析 I've been in the crypto market for eight years, growing my initial capital of 10,000 yuan to over 50 million now. My core strategy is actually just one thing—diversified funds + strict risk control. This method has kept my average monthly returns stable at around 70%. Today, I’ll break down exactly how I operate.

Let’s start with fund allocation. I’m used to dividing all available funds into five equal parts, only using one part for each position opening. I set a hard rule: limit each loss to within 10%. Calculated this way, even if I make a wrong call, I only lose 2% of the total fund per trade. It would take five consecutive mistakes to lose 10% of the principal, while my profit target is set at above 10%. Think about it: with this risk-reward ratio, how likely are you to get stuck in a big loss?

Now, the key to increasing win rate—go with the trend. It’s that simple. In a downtrend channel, every rebound is a bull trap; in a real uptrend, every pullback is a golden buying opportunity. Which is easier to make money with, bottom-fishing or buying the dip? The answer is obvious, but many people just love to take big risks.

There’s a hard rule to remember: never touch coins that have surged in the short term. Whether it’s a major or a small cap, few can go through multiple waves of strong rallies in a row. The reason is simple: after a rapid rally, it becomes exponentially harder to keep pushing higher. Stalling at the top is a signal—if it can’t break out further, it will naturally reverse downward. Still, some people want to gamble, but usually, they end up holding the bag.

On the technical side, I mainly look at MACD. When the DIF line and DEA make a golden cross below the zero axis and break above it effectively, that’s a relatively solid entry signal. On the flip side, if MACD makes a death cross below the zero axis, I treat it as a signal to reduce positions. Of course, indicators are just for reference, not to be followed blindly.

I have to say more about averaging down. I don’t know which genius invented this term, but it has ruined countless retail traders. The more you lose, the more you average down, and the more you average down, the more you lose. This is the most fatal operation in trading, basically sending yourself into a dead end. The right way is to never average down when losing, only add to winning positions. This principle has saved me countless times.

The relationship between volume and price is the indicator I value most, bar none. Trading volume is the lifeline of the market. If you see a breakout with increased volume during consolidation at the bottom, pay close attention immediately; if you see high volume with price stalling at the top, exit decisively—don’t hesitate.

When picking assets, only trade coins in an uptrend. This way, you’re most efficient and don’t waste time. Specifically, look at the moving average system: a 3-day MA turning up signals a short-term start, a 30-day MA turning bullish signals a mid-term rally, an 84-day MA rising means the main uptrend is coming, and a 120-day MA in a bull trend confirms a long-term uptrend. Different cycles correspond to different trading strategies.

Finally, I want to stress: you must review your trades every day. Check whether your position logic has changed, whether the weekly trend matches your expectations, and if the trend has reversed. Adjust your trading strategy in time based on your review—this habit will save you a lot of detours.

The market is always changing, but the underlying logic of risk control and trading with the trend never changes. Once you thoroughly understand these principles, making money is only a matter of time.