Fed December Rate Decision (3:00 AM, December 10):

Latest market odds:
Cut 25bp (84%) vs. Hold steady (16%)

Powell’s inner thoughts:

“Can’t cut, can’t not cut. If I cut, inflation might come back to bite me.

If I don’t, unemployment might hit 5% and Trump will hang me out to dry.”

FOMC 12-member voting group chat probably looks like this:
Doves (7): Cut now! If we don’t, we’ll all end up delivering food!
Hawks (4): Wait a bit longer! Inflation isn’t dead yet!
Swing voter (1): Let me check tonight’s NFP... Huh? Market’s closed? I’m off to get hotpot.

Current market mood:
US stocks and Bitcoin are already partying, all-in with the “Powell is my daddy” trade.
10-year US Treasury yield: I’m tired, flat at 4%, do whatever you want.

Three possible outcomes at a glance:
1. Cut 25bp (most likely): Group cheers “Powell the GOAT,” then everyone takes profits and we drop 3% to celebrate.

2. No cut (unlikely): Internet wails “Powell, you’ve changed!” and Bitcoin takes the express elevator to the $80Ks.

3. Cut, but Powell says with a straight face “No more cuts after this”: The darkest timeline—“gives you candy, then spanks you.”

In short:
Whatever happens, the market drops—the only difference is whether you party first then cry, or just cry from the start.
Grab your chips, 3:00 AM December 10, and witness human nature.

The crypto market is full of uncertainty and challenges, but also holds potential opportunities. Investors should fully understand the risks, stay calm and rational, and respond to market changes with a steady strategy!