#ETH走势分析 $ETH $ZEC $LUNC

Countdown to the Fed's December rate meeting, with suspense over a rate cut running high.

The December 9-10 FOMC meeting may be the last policy pivot window this year. The market is almost unanimously betting on a 25 basis point rate cut—CME data shows an 87% probability, with the federal funds rate most likely to fall in the 3.75%-4% range. Even Morgan Stanley has changed its tune: previously hawkish analysts are now predicting “this time, a cut will really happen.”

The dovish camp is going all out. Governor Milan put it bluntly: high interest rates are killing jobs, so stop dragging it out. New York Fed’s Williams is even more crucial, saying “there’s room for adjustment in the short term”—in central bank speak, these three words basically mean “get ready for a rate cut.” Over in San Francisco, President Daly is the most aggressive: if rates aren’t cut in December, it’ll be too late! Her logic is that once the labor market collapses, it’s even harder to fix than an inflation rebound.

But the hawks aren’t idle, either. Four voting officials are still worried about inflation—they’ve noticed price pressures starting to seep from goods into services, which is a troubling sign. Boston Fed’s Collins, who supported a rate cut in October, is now wavering, thinking “moderate tightening” may need to be maintained a bit longer.

In short, it’s a battle between the two camps: one side shouting to save the economy, the other fearing inflation will reignite. The pre-meeting atmosphere feels a lot like the silence before everyone goes all-in at the poker table. Soft landing or hard stop? We’ll know in a few days. For the crypto market, this decision may matter more than any technical indicator.