Summary

Bitcoin maintains cautious optimism amid macroeconomic uncertainty and key events. Here are the latest updates:

Recovery signals strengthen (December 5, 2025) – Coinbase notes that expectations of Fed rate cuts and reduced selling by long-term holders are creating a positive backdrop.
Fed rate cut expected (December 6, 2025) – Markets price in a 90% chance of easing, and BTC consolidates around $89 000 ahead of the decision.
Testing the consolidation zone (December 6, 2025) – BTC trades in the $85.4K–$93K range; a breakout above $93K could lead to a rally toward $100K.

Detailed Review

1. Recovery signals strengthen (December 5, 2025)

Overview:
The Coinbase report highlights three positive factors:

Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of Fed rate cuts, which has historically supported risk assets.
US M2 money supply stands at $22.3 trillion, creating favorable liquidity conditions.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are reducing sales, lowering exchange supply by about 20% since October.

What it means:
This is a positive signal for Bitcoin, as limited supply amid improving macro liquidity could boost growth. However, volatility risks remain if Fed statements differ from expectations.
(BeInCrypto)

2. Fed rate cut expected (December 6, 2025)

Overview:
The Federal Reserve meeting on December 9–10 is key, with markets expecting three rate cuts in 2026. Bitcoin’s historical correlation with easing cycles (for example, growth in 2020–2021) points to potential upside, but traders await confirmation.

What it means:
This is a neutral-to-positive factor for BTC, as dovish policy could attract institutional investments. However, delayed cuts or unexpected hawkish moves could extend the consolidation period. Closely watch BTC’s reaction to the resistance level $93K after the announcement.
(Coincu)

3. Testing the consolidation zone (December 6, 2025)

Overview:
BTC hovers around $89.6K, between support at $85.4K and resistance at $93K. Analyst PlanD warns that a break below $85.4K could trigger a 19% drop to $72K, while a breakout above $93K would open the path to $100K.

What it means:
This is a neutral signal for Bitcoin, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of major macro events. The $85.4K–$93K range highlights traders’ focus on Fed decisions and inflows to spot ETFs, which saw a net inflow of $21 million this week.
(NewsBTC)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s further movement depends on how closely Fed policy matches market expectations and whether BTC can hold key technical levels. Reduced selling pressure and liquidity support create recovery conditions, but failure to break above $93K could lead to deeper corrections. Can institutional accumulation (such as ETF inflows) offset retail investor caution amid a volatile macro environment in December?