To be honest, staring at the screen waiting for this “delayed” inflation report has me feeling pretty anxious. The market is already like an overinflated balloon, just waiting for the Fed to pop it with a rate cut next week. But now, whether this balloon can take off nicely all depends on whether tonight’s PCE data pours cold water on things.

Frankly, I feel a bit uneasy about the current “early celebration” atmosphere. Everyone’s way too optimistic—the CME shows a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut, as if the Fed has no other choice. This kind of consensus actually feels very fragile to me—if the data disappoints, the crash could be really harsh.

🎢 My Personal Feelings and Projections

· If the data is “hot” (core PCE MoM ≥ 0.3%): I might have to curse a bit. This would mean inflation is more stubborn than expected, and the market’s solid rate cut consensus would waver instantly. I figure Bitcoin would likely turn down to test the $90,000 psychological level, and market sentiment would quickly switch from greed to panic. I’d probably reduce some positions and observe—after all, you have to survive to keep playing in the market.
· If the data is “mild” (in line with expectations, around 0.2%): I’d breathe a sigh of relief, but I wouldn’t be overly excited. This is pretty much “according to the script,” so the market might see a small rally, testing around $94,000. To be honest, this move is probably already priced in, so there wouldn’t be much surprise. I’d mostly hold and watch, not significantly increase my positions.
· If the data is a “pleasant surprise” (below expectations): That’s when I’d actually get excited! This would give the market the much-desired green light for a rate cut, and risk assets would party. Bitcoin could quickly surge to $95,000 or even higher. At that point, I might consider adding to some strong major coins, but I’d also remind myself not to chase too high in the excitement.

💡 A Few Conflicting Thoughts I Have Now

1. Trust the data or my gut? Soft data (jobs, consumer confidence) is weakening, suggesting the economy is struggling; but hard data (retail sales, PCE expectations) is still holding up. This leaves me conflicted—I don’t know which side to believe.
2. Which does the Fed fear more? Are they more afraid of inflation reigniting, or of the job market suddenly collapsing? I think they might be conflicted too, and tonight’s data is the key weight on the scale.
3. Is the market “hypnotizing” itself? Everyone expects a rate cut, and stocks and crypto have already run up. Could this “trap” the Fed, making them afraid to disappoint the market? It sounds a bit crazy, but sometimes market sentiment just isn’t rational.

Honestly, no matter what happens tonight, I keep reminding myself not to get carried away by a single data point. The Fed looks at a whole set of data, and they hate being led by market predictions. Next week’s statement and dot plot might be even more important than the rate cut itself.

Waiting is the hardest part. For now, all I can do is check if my position leverage is too high, set alerts for key levels, and then… take a deep breath.

By the way, what’s your outlook for the market? Are you leaning toward taking a risk, or do you think it’s better to be more cautious?