Tonight at 11 PM, this data could determine how the Federal Reserve will act next week.

2025-12-05 12:16:22

[BlockBeats] This Friday is a big day—the US September PCE Price Index will be released. This is no ordinary data; it’s the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve watches most closely.

It’s quite a dramatic story, because the previous government shutdown caused a delay, so this report is finally arriving late. Now, everyone from traders to Fed officials themselves is waiting for this data to clear up the uncertainty. After all, since late September until now, there’s been no official inflation reading, and the market has been left with a lot of unanswered questions.

Tonight at 11 PM Beijing time, the core PCE year-on-year rate will be officially announced. Last time it was 2.9%, and this time the market expects the overall PCE year-on-year rate to jump to 2.8%( (August was 2.7%)). If that’s the case, it would be a new high since April 2024. The monthly rate is expected to remain at 0.3%, with no major change.

Why does everyone care so much? Because the Fed will meet next week to set interest rate policy. Right now, they’re walking a tightrope—they need to curb inflation without tanking employment. If the data meets expectations or comes in softer, a December rate cut is pretty much locked in, and the market will likely rally. But if the numbers come in hot, then a rate cut could be off the table, and rates will probably stay stuck in the 3.75%-4% range.

In short, this report is the final shot of confidence for the Fed’s decision next week. Whichever way the numbers swing, policy will follow, and all kinds of asset prices will have to reshuffle accordingly.

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ForumLurker

· 12-05 12:46

Wow, we have to watch the Fed’s moves again. When this data comes out, it’s probably going to cause another round of volatility. Whether it’s hawkish or dovish depends on what the PCE says... After waiting so long, we’re finally about to find out. They’re really relying on this one piece of data to set the tone—the market sure is working hard.

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WhaleSurfer

· 12-05 12:32

Here comes PCE again, this thing really manages to throw the market into chaos every time. Waiting to see what happens when the 11 PM data drops—it feels like another bloodbath is coming. Powell and the others are really stuck between a rock and a hard place, it must be tough. Will rates be cut next week? It all depends on tonight; this is the fate of the market. If 2.8% really comes out, a lot of positions are probably going to get liquidated. Let me stare at the charts a bit longer. The Fed is dancing on a tightrope, and we’re just waiting to get harvested. There’s been such a long data gap, finally we're about to fill it. Can’t wait to see the train wreck.

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fren.eth