A noteworthy signal has recently emerged in the market: over the past five weeks, approximately $27 billion has flowed out of the IBIT Bitcoin spot ETF product, which is managed by a leading asset management company. Just last Thursday, it recorded a net outflow of $113 million.

What does this data reveal? Looking back to January 2024, when such products were first launched, the market once regarded them as a "fast track" for institutional capital to enter. The prevailing narrative was that traditional financial giants had finally opened a convenient allocation window for retail investors. But the current capital flows show that the buying power that once provided a floor is now weakening.

To put it plainly, ETFs are essentially investment tools, not "containers of belief." The capital that rushed in at first can just as quickly exit now. This two-way liquidity feature is often overlooked when the market overheats.

The more critical issue is that the willingness of new capital to enter is cooling off, while early entrants are beginning to take profits. This combination often signals that the market's heat is receding from its peak. However, this does not mean a complete reversal of the trend—it’s more like a phase of cooling off and repricing.

History tells us that market sentiment tends to swing between two extremes. When panic spreads, it may actually be a rational entry window; when optimism peaks, that's when caution is needed.

Bitcoin’s underlying narrative—fixed supply, decentralized storage—remains unchanged. What’s changing are only the short-term capital flows and market rhythm. For those paying attention to this sector, now may not be the time to chase the rally, but it’s also not necessarily time to panic and exit.

The important thing is to learn to distinguish between tool-level volatility and fundamental shifts in logic. When everyone is discussing "how safe" a particular investment channel is, it might be time to reassess the risks. The market never disappoints those who remain clear-headed.