The capital flow in #美联储重启降息步伐 prediction markets is often more genuine than the forecasts coming from experts.

Recently, there’s been a noteworthy phenomenon on Polymarket: traders are putting real money on the line, betting on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in December. The data is straightforward—there’s now a 93% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut, while only 8% still believe rates will remain unchanged. This stark contrast basically reflects the market’s collective judgment.

Why is prediction market data worth paying attention to? Because it’s not a survey; it’s real money voting. When global participants are willing to bet on an outcome with their own funds, that signal is often sharper than traditional predictive models. What does that 93% figure mean? The market is no longer debating “whether there will be a rate cut,” but is instead preparing for “what to do after the rate cut.”

The logic behind this is clear: cooling economic data, easing inflationary pressures, and the market’s desire for looser policy. If and when the rate cut actually happens, the liquidity valve will loosen. How will the stock and bond markets react? Will crypto usher in a new narrative? The price logic of assets like $ETH, $BNB, and $ASTER may all be reinterpreted.

But here’s the question: is that 93% consensus a rational forecast, or just another herd effect of collective betting? Sometimes the market overprices a certain expectation, and when the moment actually arrives, the “good news is fully priced in.” The excitement on the eve of the rate cut and the reality after it may be two different things.

What do you think? Is this round of rate cut expectations locked in, or is the market just front-running and borrowing from the future again?