As soon as the inflation data drops to 2.4%, is the market already starting to celebrate the bull market in advance?

A drop from 2.7% to 2.4% is barely a cool-down; to put it bluntly, it’s like a patient with a high fever dropping from 40°C to 39.5°C—still lying in bed. You think this alone will make the Fed start printing money? Wishful thinking. At best, this is just a "pause on rate hikes" signal flare, not a moon rocket.

Wall Street already played out the rate cut script

Think about these things carefully:

The market has been speculating on rate cuts in 2024 since last year. Now this wave of "good news"? Institutions have already digested and regurgitated it, and in the end, it all turns into ups and downs on the charts. By the time rate cuts actually happen, it might be a "sell the news" moment.

Is liquidity really back? Take a look at what the US Treasury is doing. They haven’t stopped draining liquidity by issuing bonds. Even if the Fed releases some liquidity, the Treasury might drain even more. This "new liquidity"—is it enough to plug the government debt hole?

This rebound in Bitcoin and altcoins looks more like a technical correction than a trend reversal. After such a heavy drop, a bounce is normal. Newcomers see inflation drop and rush in, just in time to provide exit liquidity for those already stuck.

Bull market in 2026? That’s painting too far into the future

It’s only the end of 2025, and people are already fantasizing about a "bullish landscape" for the first half of 2026? That’s like studying next year’s menu on an empty stomach. Long-term expectations won’t save your current positions.

Remember this: when a piece of "good news" becomes consensus across the internet, it usually means the gains have already happened. The last thing you should do now is chase the highs. Instead, check your positions—are you prepared to withstand the collective profit-taking when expectations are finally met?