12.5 Friday Midday Market Analysis

Looking at the overall structure, BTC showed a clear long lower shadow on the 3rd, indicating strong support from bulls at lower levels and reliable support strength. This was followed by two consecutive days of bullish candles, which shows that market sentiment is gradually warming up.

However, on the 4-hour chart, the MACD histogram is retreating from high levels and gradually narrowing, currently approaching the zero axis, which means short-term momentum is weakening and the market is likely to enter a phase of consolidation or a pullback from high levels.

Under this structure, a short-term strategy focused on selling at highs is more prudent. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is 90%, but I don't believe a rate cut will bring Bitcoin back into a bull market.

The current rebound seems more like a preemptive move based on rate cut expectations. The last rate cut on October 29 is a good example!

Flowers bloom and fall, fall and bloom again—respect the pattern and follow the trend!

BTC Trading Suggestion: Short at 92800-93500, target 91200-88000, stop loss at 94500
ETH Trading Suggestion: Short at 3200, target 3120-3000, stop loss at 3270