Tonight's PCE data incoming: BTC awaits direction in the 91,000-95,000 range

[BlockBeats] A key data point is coming out tonight—the US PCE inflation index. This is the indicator the Fed watches most closely as a gauge of price trends and is directly tied to whether there will be a rate cut this month. Currently, the market is pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point cut, with expectations for core PCE annual growth to land around 2.8%. While that’s a bit above the target, at least it’s cooling down. If the data comes in lower than expected, the “soft landing” narrative will get a boost, and expectations for an easing cycle will become more solid.

The macro environment is a bit delicate. Yesterday’s ADP employment data came in weak, so the market is especially sensitive to inflation numbers now. If the data meets or is below expectations, the dollar will take a hit, and risk assets might catch a breather; but if it overshoots expectations, concerns about sticky inflation will return, US Treasury yields could spike, rate cut expectations would get discounted, and short-term capital would likely avoid high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment? Mostly wait-and-see, with liquidity sitting on the sidelines waiting for the results.

Crypto is still in a choppy phase. BTC is hovering around $92,000, and it’s expected that the PCE data release will drive 3 to 5 points of volatility. On the upside, resistance is between $93,800 and $95,400, which could be tested quickly if the data is dovish; on the downside, $90,700 and $89,000 are two support levels, and if the data is hawkish, those will be tested to see if they hold. The technicals aren’t particularly strong—more neutral to weak. There’s plenty of buying in the futures market, but spot demand is still lacking.

Before the data is released, the market is in a compressed, wait-and-see mode, with the main battleground for BTC bulls and bears between $91,000 and $95,000. If the data confirms that inflation is still declining, the odds of a year-end rally go up. If not, the choppy action continues, and capital flows will shift back toward defensive allocations and short-term trading.