Three days of consecutive declines—the market really does need a breather. It's clear we're in an adjustment cycle, but short-term trading is always a game of ups and downs; the key is whether there's a catalyst to support the market.

**A Few Noteworthy Signals**

**Extremely Low Volume Appeared**
Yesterday, trading volume shrank to a phase low, which often means everyone who wanted out has already left. With less selling pressure, even a bit of buying can lift prices. At the very least, this is a potential signal that the decline is bottoming out.

**Liquidity Injection**
Today's biggest highlight: a large amount of short-term liquidity was injected into the market. While this money won’t flow directly into crypto markets, more liquidity usually boosts sentiment. Looking at history:
- November 5: market went up after liquidity injection
- November 17: no action at maturity, market dropped
- November 25: mid-term operation, market rose again

Out of three operations, two led to gains and one to a decline. So, from a probability perspective, today's liquidity injection has a decent chance of supporting or even boosting a market rebound. This is today’s strongest potential positive.

**Tech Sector is Moving**
US stocks performed well last night, with the Nasdaq up and Nvidia surging over 2%. Chinese tech stocks also saw small gains, providing a floor for today’s open. Plus, a major domestic tech company is going public, which tends to stir up sentiment in related sectors (semiconductors, AI, computing power). When tech stocks get hot, market sentiment gathers quickly, which has a clear positive impact on the overall market.

**Core Issue: Without Volume, All Talk is Empty**

After so much decline, everyone wants a rebound. But whether the rebound can happen, how strong and how lasting it can be, all comes down to one thing: **volume**.

A rebound must be accompanied by strong volume—this is a hard rule. A rebound without volume can happen, but it won’t last.

Even if the main players want to move the index today (e.g., by pushing up large-cap stocks), if outside capital doesn't follow and trading volume doesn’t increase, the rebound is hollow. It won’t hold up, and by this afternoon or early next week, the market could weaken again. Without a steady flow of real money, it’s just a solo effort.

Year-end is a special time; many funds are cautious, either busy with settlements or waiting for next year. The big picture: the market is likely to remain sluggish and choppy.

**Overall Assessment: Rebound Possible, But All Depends on Volume**

In the short term, the chance of a rebound today is pretty high:
- Technical rebound demand after consecutive drops
- Massive liquidity stimulus
- Boost from overseas tech stocks
- New project listings acting as sector catalysts

With these factors combined, there’s a good chance we’ll see a decent rebound in early trading or during the session.

**But the height and sustainability of the rebound depend entirely on volume.**

If trading volume in the first half hour to an hour of the session is clearly higher (by 20-30% or more compared to yesterday) and continues to grow steadily, then the rebound could be strong and sustainable, offering more opportunities in individual stocks.

On the other hand, if volume remains weak or only grows slightly, the rebound will likely be short-lived, or just a symbolic uptick in the index with few opportunities in individual stocks—and it might even soften again by the close.

**Trading Strategy: Stay Calm, Don’t Get Impulsive**

**Control Position Size:** Keep some ammo in reserve—don’t go all in.

**Don’t Chase Highs:** If you see a rapid surge, especially without strong volume, don’t rush in or you might get trapped at the top. Look for opportunities in stocks that have fully adjusted and are starting to stabilize with volume support, or wait for strong stocks to pull back and confirm support.

**Be Patient:** If a real rebound arrives, watch for strength and volume before making your next move. If the rebound is weak and lacks volume, keep watching and don’t rush to bottom-fish. Year-end markets favor a cautious approach.

Summary: With multiple positives (liquidity, stable overseas markets, tech catalysts, oversold rebound), the chance of a rebound attempt today is high. But whether it becomes a strong and sustained rebound depends on whether volume increases significantly. A rebound without volume is a paper tiger.

In terms of trading, don’t get carried away, strictly control your positions, participate cautiously, don’t chase highs, and watch for confirmation signals. Let’s observe the situation and see which short-term direction the market chooses after the liquidity injection.