#比特币对比代币化黄金 **December to January: The Last Hurrah?**

I've been studying $BTC 's weekly trend lately and noticed something quite interesting. From now until early January next year, we might see a weekly-level bottoming rebound, with the target roughly near the MA50 line. If this move really takes off, those long-dormant altcoin projects might get restless too—it could be the last collective rally before 2025.

But personally, I think this rebound looks more like a bull trap. Why? Because there's a converging triangle on the weekly chart that's been brewing for a long time, and it has to resolve by 2026. Based on the pattern, this rebound is likely forming a "right shoulder." After a spike, it'll probably go sideways for a while, and then... you know what happens next.

**The 2026 Playbook: Maybe Not So Optimistic**

Looking further ahead, we need to be especially cautious between Q1 and Q2. If the weekly chart really forms a right shoulder structure, then we’re looking at the classic "top formation-sideways-violent selloff" trilogy. When that happens, it won’t be just a 10% or 20% dip—it’ll be the start of a true bear market.

So my strategy is simple: take advantage of the short-term rebound, but get out once it’s done. If you’re still holding garbage altcoins in 2026, that’s basically slow-motion suicide. $SOL $ETH and other major coins might be able to hold on a bit longer, but don’t expect any miracles.

Of course, this is just one scenario based on technical analysis; the market never follows any script. Just take this as a reference—don’t go all in on any prediction.