The next move by the Bank of Japan may warrant more caution than you think—not because of Japan itself, but because it affects the underlying logic of global asset pricing.

Here's a fact: for the past decade or so, the whole world has been taking advantage of the yen.

Japan's long-term zero or even negative interest rates have meant that borrowing yen is nearly cost-free. So global capital has engaged in a classic play:

Borrow yen at low interest → Convert to USD → Pour into high-yield assets

The US stock market has benefited from this, so have US bonds, emerging markets, cryptocurrencies have been frequent beneficiaries, and even the A-share market in China has occasionally been pushed up by this “cheap money.”

But now, the rules of the game may be about to change.

If Japan really does hike rates, the entire cycle could instantly reverse:

Cost of borrowing yen rises → Arbitrage opportunities shrink
Leveraged positions forced to unwind → Asset sell-offs to raise funds
US stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities—all could plunge
USD converted back to yen to pay off loans
Yen strengthens → Leverage pressure intensifies → More selling

This is the global version of a “death spiral,” similar to cascading liquidations in DeFi—except this time, it's across assets, markets, and borders.

So, the impact of a Japanese rate hike is never just about the yen exchange rate; it's that the entire global leverage chain built up over the past decade begins to contract.

The real risk is never in the headlines; it's hidden in the reversal of structural leverage.

Don't think these kinds of systemic risks are far from you.

Big market moves are often not driven by rallies, but are brutally triggered by “leverage unwinding.”

SOL, BTC, ETH—these assets could all come under direct pressure from liquidity contraction in the face of such macro variables.

Be aware, and be prepared.