#美联储重启降息步伐 Eight Years of Ups and Downs in Crypto: A Practical Review from 50,000 RMB to 50 Million

My name is Kejie, I'm 37 this year. Back in 2015, when BTC dropped below $200, I put all my savings into it. At the time, I couldn't even understand the trading interface, but I still remember what the old pro said: "This market cleans up those who think they're clever. Don't think about making quick money; surviving is the most important thing."

Over these eight years, I've seen many people go all-in and get rich overnight, and even more people lose everything overnight. For me to grow from 50,000 to my current amount, to be honest, I relied on the most basic methods.

Four Lessons Learned the Hard Way

1. Sharp Drops and Slow Rises Are Traps; Slow Drops and Sharp Rises Are Worth Watching

After a surge, when the price slowly declines, like a frog in warm water, it's usually just shaking out weak hands. After the 2020 DeFi bubble burst, UNI slowly dropped from $8 to $2.5. I bought in batches during that period and eventually sold at $40.

The real time to run is when the price doubles in a day and then instantly crashes with huge volume—the big players are leaving.

2. Trading Volume Is More Honest Than Candlestick Charts

The bull market peak isn't when everyone is shouting about it. When is it? When newbies start showing off their profits, but trading volume is shrinking.

In 2021, during the Dogecoin frenzy, social media was on fire, but on-chain data showed trading volume had been dropping for a week. Three days after I sold everything, the price was cut in half.

3. Bottoms Are Ground Out, Not Guessed

A sudden 30% pump in a bear market is usually a bull trap. The real bottom is often accompanied by two straight weeks of low-volume sideways movement—so quiet it makes you want to quit.

In 2018, BTC went sideways at $3,200 for a long time. I dollar-cost-averaged $100 a day for half a year, keeping my cost below $4,000. At that time, only three or four people in the group were still talking.

4. Don’t Think You Can Break the Game; Just Understand It

I used to be obsessed with every technical indicator, but later realized candlesticks are just a projection of sentiment. The market fears two types of people: those who dare to buy in during a crash, and those who are willing to sell in batches during a rally.

Last year, when SOL crashed from $260 to $80, I added to my position every 20% drop. When it rebounded to $150, I sold in three batches—my returns were better than those who just held on.

Now I live in Xixi, Hangzhou, but my computer is still a 3,000 RMB custom build—not for show, but to remind myself to always keep some distance.

The strangest thing about this industry is: when you think you've figured it all out, that's usually right before you get rekt; when you admit you don't understand, you're actually closer to the truth.

I used to fumble around in the dark, now I have a bit of light in my hands. That's all.