Waking up in the morning and checking my phone, I found two pieces of news blowing up in various groups: one was a screenshot of the Federal Reserve officially announcing the end of QT, and the other was a prediction interface showing the probability of a certain dovish figure being elected soaring to 86%. It kind of feels like—a faucet that’s been held shut for ages is finally about to be turned on?

**Policy Shift in Place, But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet**

On December 1, the Federal Reserve officially hit the pause button, no longer pulling money out of the market. Sounds like a major positive, right?

But if you look back at history, after the last tightening halt in 2019, it actually took risk assets half a year to a full year to really take off. The current market excitement is mostly betting on expectations; the fundamentals will take time to catch up. In the short term, it’s more likely that sentiment runs ahead, with capital following behind.

**Personnel as a Weather Vane: Is a Dovish Appointment a Blessing or a Curse?**

The name Hassett has been popping up a lot lately. His stance is clear—he’s pushing for rapid rate cuts, even calling for a direct 50 basis point cut in December.

But there’s a subtle issue here: if the market starts to think the Fed is being led by political winds, its reputation for independence could be at stake. In the long run, this could actually trigger a resurgence in inflation expectations, or even undermine the fundamental credibility of the dollar.

My take? In the short term, it’s definitely a treat for risk assets, but beware the backlash from diminished policy credibility down the road.

**BTC: How Much Tighter Can This Liquidity Spring Be Compressed?**

On the technical side, BTC has already climbed out of oversold territory, but the $95,000 to $100,000 range is still a hurdle. Whether trading volume can keep up will be key to breaking through.

ETH is showing a bit more strength, with signs that capital is starting to rotate among major coins.

On-chain data shows large addresses have been accumulating in recent low zones, but ETF inflows haven’t yet established a stable upward trend.

There’s also a potential risk—if the Bank of Japan suddenly raises rates, it could trigger a short-term correction. After all, global liquidity is interconnected; tightening in one place affects everywhere else.