There’s a major data release tonight at 21:30—those watching the market, pay attention!

The US weekly initial jobless claims are about to be announced. Although this comes out every Thursday, it always stirs up the market. Why? Because it’s a leading indicator for the "mini non-farm payrolls." The dollar’s movements depend on it, and the crypto market follows suit.

The logic isn’t complicated. If the data comes in higher than expected, the dollar takes a hit. If it’s lower, the dollar strengthens. But for crypto, it’s the opposite—the stronger the dollar, the more crypto prices get suppressed; the weaker the dollar, the more funds may flow into crypto.

The last few releases have all looked pretty good, coming in lower than expected as the new norm. If tonight’s number is again below the expected 22, it’ll definitely be a pleasant surprise for the crypto market.

Right now, Bitcoin and other major coins are pretty tense. On the technical charts, prices are grinding back and forth within a range, with both bulls and bears waiting for a signal. If the data turns out strong and the dollar eases up, we might see money flow into crypto. At that point, Bitcoin could break out of this consolidation zone and go on a solid rally.

That’s how the market works—once the data drops, the direction becomes clear. Tonight at 21:30, I suggest everyone keep a close eye on the market and watch how this plays out.